TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Arsenii Lobanov vs Vitalii Kryvenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121820811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:55 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArsenii Lobanov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArsenii Lobanov above · Vitalii Kryvenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 18-20
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 79 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Arsenii Lobanov at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Arsenii Lobanov 1–1 Vitalii Kryvenko Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5554.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lobanov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lobanov 1607 vs Kryvenko 1609
Kryvenko
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobanov 40% vs Kryvenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobanov 40% vs Kryvenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobanov -3 · Kryvenko -1
Lobanov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lobanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryvenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobanov 1.80 / Kryvenko 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lobanov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234977
Lobanov1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 21 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Kryvenko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 8 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeLobanov1wins
AwayKryvenko1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricLobanovKryvenkoL − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match43.038.5+4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobanovKryvenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 124 vs 56 / 9751.6%57.7%64 / 124 vs 56 / 97Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LobanovLobanov 1.80/Kryvenko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lobanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kryvenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 25 · 10:35A. Lobanov531212111172V. Kryvenko551014137113
WMar 21 · 06:05A. Lobanov331111113V. Kryvenko227780
A. Lobanov10
LOct 3 · 04:30A. Lobanov1.6171111962Y. Kovshun2.20113811113LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722LAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113WAug 23 · 08:00Y. Kovshun2.2071351132A. Lobanov1.611111112113WAug 23 · 06:00O. Varlamov2.507590A. Lobanov1.501111113LAug 23 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko2.75101211113A. Lobanov1.401210741LAug 20 · 10:30A. Obishchenko1.57127119123A. Lobanov2.251011811102WAug 20 · 09:30A. Lobanov1.40127211113A. Troyan2.75101111932LAug 20 · 08:30A. Lobanov1.50111116592Y. Volkov2.50691811113WAug 20 · 07:00A. Lobanov1.571113113A. Kotiash2.2551170
V. Kryvenko10
LOct 3 · 05:00I. Efimenko1.4411118113V. Kryvenko2.63571161WSep 19 · 11:35A. Kotiash2.63511851V. Kryvenko1.4411911113WSep 19 · 10:35Y. Kovshun2.257101191V. Kryvenko1.5711127113LSep 19 · 09:05I. Efimenko1.5011119113V. Kryvenko2.50841131LSep 19 · 07:05Y. Makovka2.0011811113V. Kryvenko1.73611981WSep 19 · 05:05Y. Volkov1.83671171V. Kryvenko1.8311114113LAug 22 · 11:05I. Efimenko1.671111113V. Kryvenko2.107890WAug 22 · 10:05V. Kryvenko1.5011811113A. Kotiash2.50611781LAug 22 · 09:05V. Kryvenko1.83101251152Y. Volkov1.831210119113LAug 22 · 07:35V. Kryvenko1.5376121192Y. Makovka2.381111107113
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