TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Kozoriz vs Dmytro Ponomarenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911116118811811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:22 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Kozoriz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Kozoriz above · Dmytro Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Denys Kozoriz at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Denys Kozoriz 1–1 Dmytro Ponomarenko Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:22What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kozoriz 1400 vs Ponomarenko 1362
Kozoriz
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozoriz 80% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Kozoriz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozoriz 60% vs Ponomarenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozoriz -1 · Ponomarenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kozoriz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozoriz 1.83 / Ponomarenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kozoriz)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13212960
Kozoriz1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Ponomarenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKozoriz1wins
AwayPonomarenko1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKozorizPonomarenkoK − PBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match29.529.0+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozorizPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 503 vs 37 / 9154.3%40.7%273 / 503 vs 37 / 91Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.436.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KozorizKozoriz 1.83/Ponomarenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kozoriz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 26 · 05:25D. Kozoriz206860D. Ponomarenko331111113
WAug 25 · 18:55D. Kozoriz3911116113D. Ponomarenko25561131
D. Kozoriz10
LSep 29 · 11:55D. Kozoriz1.36115115112V. Hel3.00511811133WSep 23 · 10:55V. Hel3.00116391D. Kozoriz1.3671111113WSep 23 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv3.758690D. Kozoriz1.251111113WSep 23 · 08:25A. Dulich2.50117681D. Kozoriz1.5051111113WSep 23 · 06:25O. Melnik1.7351350D. Kozoriz2.001115113LSep 23 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.2551211123D. Kozoriz1.5711102101LSep 22 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.80911811103D. Kozoriz1.9111611832WSep 22 · 17:25D. Kozoriz1.44611511133D. Kasian2.63118116112LSep 22 · 15:25O. Melnik1.801211133D. Kozoriz1.91109110WSep 22 · 13:25V. Hel2.388111161D. Kozoriz1.5311138113
D. Ponomarenko10
WSep 29 · 12:25D. Kasian1.83711391D. Ponomarenko1.8311611113WSep 27 · 18:00V. Melnykov1.9191111772D. Ponomarenko1.80115811113LSep 27 · 17:00D. Ponomarenko2.50115881S. Skhabitskiy1.5061111113LSep 27 · 16:00D. Ponomarenko3.7511970O. Ovsiienko1.251311113LSep 27 · 14:30D. Ponomarenko2.2011810101V. Smyk1.6191112123WSep 27 · 12:30D. Ponomarenko1.57119118113M. Stetsenko2.2561191172LSep 21 · 11:05V. Mukhin2.00111177113D. Ponomarenko1.7365111172WSep 21 · 10:05D. Ponomarenko1.831310911113O. Mytsyk1.83111211582WSep 21 · 09:05D. Ponomarenko1.7311123113M. Stetsenko2.006101161LSep 21 · 07:35D. Ponomarenko2.001111081O. Ovsiienko1.7361112113
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