TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Danylo Kasian vs Dmytro Ponomarenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711116311911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDanylo Kasian to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDanylo Kasian above · Dmytro Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 69 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Danylo Kasian at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Danylo Kasian 0–2 Dmytro Ponomarenko Danylo Kasian has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kasian 1371 vs Ponomarenko 1362
Kasian
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasian 80% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Kasian
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasian 60% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Kasian
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasian +1 · Ponomarenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kasian) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasian 1.83 / Ponomarenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kasian)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13212946
Kasian1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 22) · back after a break
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Ponomarenko1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKasian0wins
AwayPonomarenko2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKasianPonomarenkoK − PBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match35.543.0−7.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasianPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 77 vs 37 / 9159.7%40.7%46 / 77 vs 37 / 91Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KasianKasian 1.83/Ponomarenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kasian · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 29 · 12:25D. Kasian30711391D. Ponomarenko3911611113
LAug 25 · 12:55D. Kasian4111811562D. Ponomarenko47611811113
D. Kasian10
WSep 22 · 18:25O. Melnik2.006890D. Kasian1.731111113LSep 22 · 17:25D. Kozoriz1.44611511133D. Kasian2.63118116112WSep 22 · 15:55S. Kryvoshyi2.509950D. Kasian1.501111113WSep 22 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.91118116102D. Kasian1.80911511123WSep 22 · 11:55V. Hel1.9171161372D. Kasian1.801181111113WSep 21 · 11:35O. Maslovskyi2.5013880D. Kasian1.501511113LSep 21 · 10:05D. Kasian1.361161171S. Kryvoshyi3.0091113113WSep 21 · 08:05M. Vivatenko2.75671191D. Kasian1.4011119113LSep 21 · 06:05V. Salivonchyk2.101111133D. Kasian1.6799110LSep 16 · 10:55O. Melnik2.5081211143D. Kasian1.5011104121
D. Ponomarenko10
WSep 29 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.8391111882D. Ponomarenko1.83116811113WSep 27 · 18:00V. Melnykov1.9191111772D. Ponomarenko1.80115811113LSep 27 · 17:00D. Ponomarenko2.50115881S. Skhabitskiy1.5061111113LSep 27 · 16:00D. Ponomarenko3.7511970O. Ovsiienko1.251311113LSep 27 · 14:30D. Ponomarenko2.2011810101V. Smyk1.6191112123WSep 27 · 12:30D. Ponomarenko1.57119118113M. Stetsenko2.2561191172LSep 21 · 11:05V. Mukhin2.00111177113D. Ponomarenko1.7365111172WSep 21 · 10:05D. Ponomarenko1.831310911113O. Mytsyk1.83111211582WSep 21 · 09:05D. Ponomarenko1.7311123113M. Stetsenko2.006101161LSep 21 · 07:35D. Ponomarenko2.001111081O. Ovsiienko1.7361112113
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