Dmytro Ponomarenko vs Vasiliy Smyk 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Sep 27Finished

Dmytro Ponomarenko

Home

2.20

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

11981110121012––

Vasiliy Smyk

Away

1.62

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%

Graded at full time

Vasiliy Smyk to win

58.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingDmytro Ponomarenko above · Vasiliy Smyk below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 8-11

Set 3 · 10-12

Set 4 · 10-12

Point 83 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Vasiliy Smyk at 58.5%

83 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 20:07

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Smyk

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Ponomarenko 1359 vs Smyk 1449

Smyk

Correct

both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Ponomarenko 60% vs Smyk 80%

Smyk

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Ponomarenko 40% vs Smyk 60%

Smyk

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Ponomarenko +1 · Smyk +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Smyk) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Smyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPonomarenko 2.20 / Smyk 1.61

Signal prob.42% / 58%

Edge (Smyk)+0.0pp

Setka Cup · #13202982

Ponomarenko2.20

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog25% won 12 of 48

Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 34

Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24

Smyk1.61

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite56% won 31 of 55

Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15

Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricPonomarenkoSmykBasisWin rate · lifetime35 / 86 vs 267 / 63840.7%41.9%35 / 86 vs 267 / 638Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.8per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Smyk

Ponomarenko 2.20/Smyk 1.61

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

57.7%

Smyk · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Smyk won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

D. Ponomarenko10