TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasiliy Smyk vs Maksym Stetsenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111151178111214
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeVasiliy Smyk to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 99 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Vasiliy Smyk at 58.9%
99 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 5–4 Maksym Stetsenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Smyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1445 vs Stetsenko 1367
Smyk
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 80% vs Stetsenko 60%
Smyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 70% vs Stetsenko 40%
Smyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk +3 · Stetsenko +1
Smyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Smyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 1.61 / Stetsenko 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Smyk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13201854
Smyk1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 31 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Stetsenko2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 91 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back23% 29 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSmyk5wins
AwayStetsenko4wins
Smyk leads 5–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk83.3%5 of 6
AwayStetsenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk6Stetsenko3n = 9Smyk took 6 of 9
S2Smyk4Stetsenko5n = 9Stetsenko took 5 of 9
S3Smyk3Stetsenko6n = 9Stetsenko took 6 of 9
S4Smyk4Stetsenko2n = 6Smyk took 4 of 6
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricSmykStetsenkoSmyk − StetsenkoBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match35.232.4+2.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 639 vs 446 / 86041.9%51.9%268 / 639 vs 446 / 860Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmykSmyk 1.61/Stetsenko 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Smyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stetsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 23 · 16:00V. Smyk4411913113M. Stetsenko346111161
WSep 9 · 18:00V. Smyk4012116113M. Stetsenko361061191
LSep 2 · 12:30V. Smyk197660M. Stetsenko331111113
LAug 19 · 17:00V. Smyk38911991M. Stetsenko3611311113
WAug 16 · 16:00V. Smyk4113116113M. Stetsenko391191181
WJul 27 · 09:20V. Smyk43111011113M. Stetsenko27412561
LJul 26 · 18:30V. Smyk35138951M. Stetsenko44111111113
WJul 20 · 12:20V. Smyk331111113M. Stetsenko105500
LJul 19 · 14:30V. Smyk249690M. Stetsenko331111113
V. Smyk10
WSep 27 · 14:30D. Ponomarenko2.2011810101V. Smyk1.6191112123WSep 27 · 13:00V. Smyk1.73581111113S. Skhabitskiy2.0011118482WSep 23 · 18:00S. Skhabitskiy1.91951181V. Smyk1.8011116113LSep 23 · 17:00V. Smyk2.20871941O. Lipeiko1.61111117113WSep 23 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311913113M. Stetsenko1.836111161WSep 23 · 14:30V. Smyk1.5011611113O. Ovsiienko2.50411651WSep 23 · 12:30V. Smyk2.00271111153A. Kovalenko1.73111155132LSep 20 · 18:30V. Smyk1.50119491O. Ovsiienko2.5081111113WSep 20 · 16:29V. Nechai1.91611111062V. Smyk1.80112912113LSep 20 · 15:30V. Smyk2.10711781O. Lipeiko1.6711711113
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 27 · 13:30V. Melnykov2.75712511112M. Stetsenko1.401110117133LSep 27 · 12:30D. Ponomarenko1.57119118113M. Stetsenko2.2561191172WSep 24 · 12:20V. Melnykov2.504890M. Stetsenko1.501111113WSep 24 · 11:20O. Ovsiienko1.8397111392M. Stetsenko1.831111711113LSep 24 · 09:50A. Kovalenko1.361111113M. Stetsenko3.008970LSep 24 · 07:50O. Mytsyk2.201211113M. Stetsenko1.6110730LSep 24 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.10771111113M. Stetsenko1.6711119562WSep 23 · 18:30O. Ovsiienko1.8315114872M. Stetsenko1.831371111113LSep 23 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.36126116113M. Stetsenko3.00101191142LSep 23 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311913113M. Stetsenko1.836111161
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