TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Ponomarenko vs Oleksandr Ovsiienko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113911711––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:26 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ovsiienko to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Ponomarenko above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 62 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Ovsiienko at 59.7%
62 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Ponomarenko 0–2 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Dmytro Ponomarenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Ovsiienko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1362 vs Ovsiienko 1476
Ovsiienko
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Ovsiienko 80%
Ovsiienko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 30% vs Ovsiienko 70%
Ovsiienko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Ovsiienko +3
Ovsiienko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Ovsiienko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 3.75 / Ovsiienko 1.25
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Ovsiienko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13203147
Ponomarenko3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog25% won 12 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Ovsiienko1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 138 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it97% 88 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it85% 109 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePonomarenko0wins
AwayOvsiienko2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderOvsiienko leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoOvsiienkoP − OBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.544.0−3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime35 / 87 vs 462 / 88640.2%52.1%35 / 87 vs 462 / 886Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvsiienkoPonomarenko 3.75/Ovsiienko 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75%
Ovsiienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ovsiienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 21 · 07:35D. Ponomarenko301111081O. Ovsiienko4061112113
LAug 2 · 19:00D. Ponomarenko51811118132O. Ovsiienko48115611153
D. Ponomarenko10
LSep 27 · 14:30D. Ponomarenko2.2011810101V. Smyk1.6191112123WSep 27 · 12:30D. Ponomarenko1.57119118113M. Stetsenko2.2561191172LSep 21 · 11:05V. Mukhin2.00111177113D. Ponomarenko1.7365111172WSep 21 · 10:05D. Ponomarenko1.831310911113O. Mytsyk1.83111211582WSep 21 · 09:05D. Ponomarenko1.7311123113M. Stetsenko2.006101161LSep 21 · 07:35D. Ponomarenko2.001111081O. Ovsiienko1.7361112113LSep 21 · 05:35D. Ponomarenko2.38101311492S. Skhabitskiy1.531211611113LSep 20 · 19:00D. Ponomarenko2.10111040O. Lipeiko1.671312113LSep 20 · 17:00S. Skhabitskiy1.731114113D. Ponomarenko2.0081250LSep 20 · 14:59V. Nechai1.83101111113D. Ponomarenko1.83126981
O. Ovsiienko10
WSep 27 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy2.0051311772O. Ovsiienko1.731111711113WSep 27 · 12:00V. Melnykov2.203811111O. Ovsiienko1.6111113133WSep 25 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.917560O. Ovsiienko1.801111113LSep 25 · 10:35O. Ovsiienko2.6397111192V. Korniichuk1.44111169113WSep 25 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy1.91119691O. Ovsiienko1.8091111113WSep 25 · 06:35V. Mukhin3.757360O. Ovsiienko1.251111113WSep 25 · 05:35V. Melnykov2.201110179102O. Ovsiienko1.619121511123WSep 24 · 12:50O. Mytsyk1.91111114982O. Ovsiienko1.80971611113LSep 24 · 11:20O. Ovsiienko1.8397111392M. Stetsenko1.831111711113WSep 21 · 07:35D. Ponomarenko2.001111081O. Ovsiienko1.7361112113
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