TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Kyrylo Tkachenko vs Denys Kozoriz 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911116811118103
Denys Kozoriz
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKyrylo Tkachenko above · Denys Kozoriz below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-3
Point 88 set 5, 10-3 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Kyrylo Tkachenko 4–4 Denys Kozoriz Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:02What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1391 vs Kozoriz 1401
Kozoriz
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 40% vs Kozoriz 80%
Kozoriz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 60% vs Kozoriz 80%
Kozoriz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko -3 · Kozoriz +1
Tkachenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozoriz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.80 / Kozoriz 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tkachenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13172977
Tkachenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 67 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it85% 52 of 61
Kozoriz1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 30 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeTkachenko4wins
AwayKozoriz4wins
1 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenko80%4 of 5
AwayKozoriz100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko5Kozoriz3n = 8Tkachenko took 5 of 8
S2Tkachenko5Kozoriz3n = 8Tkachenko took 5 of 8
S3Tkachenko3Kozoriz5n = 8Kozoriz took 5 of 8
S4Tkachenko1Kozoriz4n = 5Kozoriz took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricTkachenkoKozorizT − KBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match32.233.6−1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 182 vs 271 / 50656%53.6%102 / 182 vs 271 / 506Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.534.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.80/Kozoriz 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 8 · 16:55K. Tkachenko331111113D. Kozoriz229490
LSep 1 · 16:25K. Tkachenko92520D. Kozoriz331111113
LAug 11 · 18:55K. Tkachenko34911591D. Kozoriz4211911113
WMay 13 · 12:25K. Tkachenko351111133D. Kozoriz2027110
LJul 31 · 14:55K. Tkachenko311141061D. Kozoriz4281112113
LJul 17 · 18:25K. Tkachenko27211681D. Kozoriz3711411113
WMay 22 · 10:55K. Tkachenko4211812113D. Kozoriz325111061
WApr 2 · 16:55K. Tkachenko47111195113D. Kozoriz4167111162
K. Tkachenko10
LSep 22 · 16:55S. Kryvoshyi2.751111113K. Tkachenko1.408470LSep 22 · 14:55V. Hel2.50811115113K. Tkachenko1.5011691162LSep 22 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.91118116102D. Kasian1.80911511123WSep 22 · 12:55O. Melnik6.506690K. Tkachenko1.101111113WSep 15 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57116811113V. Hel2.2531111762WSep 15 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv3.4011911762K. Tkachenko1.30711811113WSep 15 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.441711113S. Kryvoshyi2.6315970WSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik4.509490K. Tkachenko1.171111113LSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113WSep 8 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.221111113V. Kheresko4.006790
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 22 · 17:25D. Kozoriz1.44611511133D. Kasian2.63118116112LSep 22 · 15:25O. Melnik1.801211133D. Kozoriz1.91109110WSep 22 · 13:25V. Hel2.388111161D. Kozoriz1.5311138113WSep 22 · 12:25S. Kryvoshyi2.3811119592D. Kozoriz1.53771111113WSep 9 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv3.75521171D. Kozoriz1.2511117113LSep 9 · 09:55D. Kozoriz1.8091120A. Didyk1.911113113WSep 9 · 07:55V. Dobrovolskyi1.36411851D. Kozoriz3.0011611113WSep 9 · 05:55H. Oliynyk4.336780D. Kozoriz1.201111113WSep 9 · 04:55D. Belanchik3.253540D. Kozoriz1.331111113WSep 8 · 17:55D. Belanchik3.008270D. Kozoriz1.361111113
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