TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Kryvoshyi vs Denys Kozoriz 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Serhii Kryvoshyi
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
51112101121210––
Denys Kozoriz
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:20 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Kozoriz to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Kryvoshyi above · Denys Kozoriz below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 73 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Denys Kozoriz at 60.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kryvoshyi 32–35 Denys Kozoriz Serhii Kryvoshyi has won 32 of their 67 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 16h before this match
Kozoriz beat Kryvoshyi 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:20What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kozoriz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-35 in 67
Kozoriz
Wrong
gap of 3 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryvoshyi 1357 vs Kozoriz 1390
Kozoriz
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryvoshyi 40% vs Kozoriz 60%
Kozoriz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryvoshyi 70% vs Kozoriz 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryvoshyi +2 · Kozoriz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kozoriz)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryvoshyi 2.25 / Kozoriz 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Kozoriz)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13179737
Kryvoshyi2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 23 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Kozoriz1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 53 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it82% 46 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKryvoshyi4wins
AwayKozoriz6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKozoriz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryvoshyi66.7%2 of 3
AwayKozoriz71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryvoshyi3Kozoriz7n = 10Kozoriz took 7 of 10
S2Kryvoshyi4Kozoriz6n = 10Kozoriz took 6 of 10
S3Kryvoshyi5Kozoriz5n = 10split evenly
S4Kryvoshyi2Kozoriz3n = 5Kozoriz took 3 of 5
S5Kryvoshyi2Kozoriz1n = 3Kryvoshyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKryvoshyiKozorizKryvoshyi − KozorizBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.334.8−0.5per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryvoshyiKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 560 vs 271 / 50745.5%53.5%255 / 560 vs 271 / 507Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.734.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozorizKryvoshyi 2.25/Kozoriz 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Kozoriz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kryvoshyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 12:25S. Kryvoshyi4511119592D. Kozoriz47771111113
LSep 8 · 15:55S. Kryvoshyi1961030D. Kozoriz341112113
WSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi331111113D. Kozoriz166370
LSep 1 · 13:25S. Kryvoshyi30511681D. Kozoriz4211911113
LAug 25 · 13:25S. Kryvoshyi175660D. Kozoriz331111113
WMay 14 · 05:25S. Kryvoshyi538101311113D. Kozoriz42111211442
LMay 13 · 18:55S. Kryvoshyi4271111131D. Kozoriz4711138153
WApr 8 · 05:25S. Kryvoshyi331111113D. Kozoriz86020
WApr 7 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi511071112113D. Kozoriz46121151082
LMar 6 · 10:25S. Kryvoshyi205960D. Kozoriz331111113
S. Kryvoshyi10
WSep 22 · 17:55V. Hel1.91111189112S. Kryvoshyi1.80571111133WSep 22 · 16:55S. Kryvoshyi2.751111113K. Tkachenko1.408470LSep 22 · 15:55S. Kryvoshyi2.509950D. Kasian1.501111113LSep 22 · 14:25S. Kryvoshyi1.3012911942O. Melnik3.401011611113LSep 22 · 12:25S. Kryvoshyi2.3811119592D. Kozoriz1.53771111113WSep 21 · 11:05M. Vivatenko2.007470S. Kryvoshyi1.731111113WSep 21 · 10:05D. Kasian1.361161171S. Kryvoshyi3.0091113113WSep 21 · 08:35V. Hel1.8381111622S. Kryvoshyi1.83114711113WSep 21 · 06:35O. Maslovskyi3.00711981S. Kryvoshyi1.3611511113WSep 21 · 04:35V. Salivonchyk3.7511791142S. Kryvoshyi1.25711116113
D. Kozoriz10
LSep 22 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.80911811103D. Kozoriz1.9111611832WSep 22 · 17:25D. Kozoriz1.44611511133D. Kasian2.63118116112LSep 22 · 15:25O. Melnik1.801211133D. Kozoriz1.91109110WSep 22 · 13:25V. Hel2.388111161D. Kozoriz1.5311138113WSep 22 · 12:25S. Kryvoshyi2.3811119592D. Kozoriz1.53771111113WSep 9 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv3.75521171D. Kozoriz1.2511117113LSep 9 · 09:55D. Kozoriz1.8091120A. Didyk1.911113113WSep 9 · 07:55V. Dobrovolskyi1.36411851D. Kozoriz3.0011611113WSep 9 · 05:55H. Oliynyk4.336780D. Kozoriz1.201111113WSep 9 · 04:55D. Belanchik3.253540D. Kozoriz1.331111113
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