TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Theodor vs Karel Zeman 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Filip Theodor
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131171210––––
Karel Zeman
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Theodor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Theodor above · Karel Zeman below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 54 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Filip Theodor at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Filip Theodor 7–12 Karel Zeman Filip Theodor has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Theodor beat Zeman 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:51What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zeman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Zeman
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Theodor 1536 vs Zeman 1431
Theodor
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Theodor 100% vs Zeman 60%
Theodor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Theodor 70% vs Zeman 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Theodor +5 · Zeman +2
Theodor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zeman) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Theodor form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTheodor 2.00 / Zeman 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Theodor)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13186110
Theodor2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 25 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Zeman1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 70 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it75% 53 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTheodor5wins
AwayZeman5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTheodor100%4 of 4
AwayZeman83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Theodor4Zeman6n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S2Theodor5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S3Theodor7Zeman3n = 10Theodor took 7 of 10
S4Theodor3Zeman4n = 7Zeman took 4 of 7
S5Theodor3Zeman3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTheodorZemanT − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.639.5+1.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTheodorZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime91 / 188 vs 182 / 32648.4%55.8%91 / 188 vs 182 / 326Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanTheodor 2.00/Zeman 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Theodor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 21:20F. Theodor341111123K. Zeman2037100
WSep 23 · 18:15F. Theodor52891112123K. Zeman481111610102
WSep 13 · 13:45F. Theodor541212811113K. Zeman47101411572
LSep 7 · 17:20F. Theodor4141111962K. Zeman46115811113
LSep 7 · 16:15F. Theodor3981111452K. Zeman50119811113
LAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor29931161K. Zeman3611113113
WAug 27 · 20:10F. Theodor351111133K. Zeman2678110
LAug 9 · 20:45F. Theodor258980K. Zeman331111113
LAug 9 · 20:15F. Theodor4771111992K. Zeman43118211113
WJul 29 · 21:03F. Theodor50145911113K. Zeman46121111662
F. Theodor10
WSep 23 · 19:45V. Reska1.67121111632F. Theodor2.10148911113WSep 23 · 19:15P. Chvojka1.911041381F. Theodor1.80121111113WSep 23 · 18:15F. Theodor2.00891112123K. Zeman1.731111610102WSep 21 · 17:08K. Przeczek1.73911731F. Theodor2.0011511113WSep 21 · 15:40F. Theodor2.25115119123O. Skvor1.57811811102LSep 21 · 14:40F. Theodor1.918101113112K. Przeczek1.801112411133WSep 21 · 13:40F. Theodor1.80681111113O. Coufal1.9111114692WSep 13 · 16:46O. Kus1.80115471F. Theodor1.9051111113LSep 13 · 15:45F. Theodor1.83115761O. Kus1.8391111113LSep 13 · 14:45F. Theodor1.835870O. Skvor1.831111113
K. Zeman10
WSep 23 · 20:15K. Zeman1.5781113113P. Chvojka2.251161161WSep 23 · 18:45V. Reska1.8012711792K. Zeman1.911011711113LSep 23 · 18:15F. Theodor2.00891112123K. Zeman1.731111610102LSep 19 · 21:13K. Zeman1.801153101M. Janik1.9181111123WSep 19 · 19:45K. Zeman2.101051111123M. Janik1.67121179102WSep 19 · 18:45K. Zeman2.10101111113O. Skvor1.67129661WSep 19 · 17:45K. Zeman1.531112113J. Vanous2.3861090WSep 16 · 21:05O. Kus2.046890K. Zeman1.661111113LSep 16 · 19:40K. Zeman1.53911841O. Kus2.3811511113WSep 16 · 18:40K. Zeman1.91111111113P. Jokiel1.80671371
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