Match Analysis — Predictions & Deep Stats

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13154166

Starts 22:00Scheduled

Michal Natkaniec

Home

3.15

At publish

Lost last 4

3–7Last 10Lost last 4

Head to head

3 – 32

All 35 meetings · 8.6%

Last 10 · 0–10Same side

Cezary Pawlik

Away

1.23

At publish

Won last 2

6–4Last 10Won last 2

Michal Natkaniec arrives off 4 straight losses. The streak is one of the signals the engine reads.

Compare players

Same-day rematch · 4h before this match

Pawlik beat Natkaniec 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsNatkaniec 3.15 / Pawlik 1.23

TT Elite Series · #13154166

Natkaniec3.15

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog31% won 36 of 115

Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 78

Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54

Pawlik1.23

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite66% won 119 of 181

Up 2–0, closes it92% 73 of 79

Up 1–0, closes it81% 95 of 118

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeNatkaniec0wins

AwayPawlik10wins

1 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeNatkaniecn = 1, below the 3 needed

AwayPawlik100%9 of 9

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Natkaniec1Pawlik9n = 10Pawlik took 9 of 10

S2Natkaniec1Pawlik9n = 10Pawlik took 9 of 10

S3Natkaniec4Pawlik6n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10

S4Natkaniec1Pawlik5n = 6Pawlik took 5 of 6

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away550%

0–3Straight, away440%

These 10 meetings

MetricNatkaniecPawlikN − PBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match29.938.5−8.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricNatkaniecPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 393 vs 294 / 50233.6%58.6%132 / 393 vs 294 / 502Avg sets wonper match1.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.538.5per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match WinnerForecastThe edge lives in the pick, one screen up

No price history

Neither player has a record at this price yet, so there is no odds range to publish.

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LSep 18 · 18:00M. Natkaniec4568111192C. Pawlik48111187113

LSep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec31911651C. Pawlik4011711113

LSep 11 · 18:00M. Natkaniec3961211101C. Pawlik3911142123

LJul 24 · 22:00M. Natkaniec124440C. Pawlik331111113

LJul 24 · 18:00M. Natkaniec386131181C. Pawlik3911152113

LJul 3 · 22:00M. Natkaniec30116491C. Pawlik4071111113

LJul 3 · 18:00M. Natkaniec3181490C. Pawlik381116113

LJun 26 · 22:25M. Natkaniec199460C. Pawlik331111113

LJun 26 · 20:00M. Natkaniec388101191C. Pawlik4211128113

LJun 13 · 24:00M. Natkaniec162770C. Pawlik331111113

M. Natkaniec10

LSep 18 · 18:45M. Krutak1.41381111123M. Natkaniec2.60111179102 LSep 18 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.25111187113M. Natkaniec3.0568111192 LSep 18 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.85311891O. Jedrzejowski1.3611811113 LSep 18 · 16:00M. Natkaniec2.004790D. Pyrek1.711111113 WSep 12 · 02:20M. Natkaniec2.501111113M. Wozniczka1.479880 LSep 12 · 24:45J. Oracz1.2111119113M. Natkaniec3.70831151 WSep 12 · 24:00D. Pyrek1.901277111M. Natkaniec1.80101111133 WSep 11 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.751111113O. Jedrzejowski1.374470 LSep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40911651C. Pawlik1.2411711113 LSep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.4511610101M. Wozniczka1.4471112123

C. Pawlik10

WSep 18 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.25111187113M. Natkaniec3.0568111192 WSep 18 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.6611911123M. Krutak2.107119101 LSep 18 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.78691171J. Oracz1.9111117113 WSep 13 · 02:00K. Malcher3.407470C. Pawlik1.241111113 WSep 13 · 01:10M. Wolny2.859890C. Pawlik1.341111113 LSep 13 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.6271161182A. Fomin2.07118117113 LSep 12 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.6191115372O. Jedrzejowski2.101171311113 LSep 12 · 22:00A. Zmijewski2.07611811123C. Pawlik1.62116115102 WSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101 WSep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40911651C. Pawlik1.2411711113

Upcoming Matches

M. Natkaniec

Sep 18 · 20:20M. Natkaniec3.65J. Oracz1.17—Sep 18 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.36—Sep 19 · 24:00M. Natkaniec1.95D. Pyrek1.76—Sep 19 · 24:45M. Natkaniec2.60M. Krutak1.41—Sep 19 · 02:20M. Natkaniec3.65J. Oracz1.17—

C. Pawlik

Sep 18 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.36D. Pyrek2.95—Sep 18 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.66O. Jedrzejowski2.00—Sep 18 · 22:50C. Pawlik2.10J. Oracz1.60—Sep 19 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.66O. Jedrzejowski2.00—Sep 19 · 01:10C. Pawlik1.33D. Pyrek3.00—Sep 19 · 02:00C. Pawlik1.52M. Krutak2.13—

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