TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vaclav Nadvornik vs Pavel Benes 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Vaclav Nadvornik
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111210118116––
Pavel Benes
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:34 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Nadvornik above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 78 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 57.6%
78 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nadvornik 14–9 Pavel Benes Pavel Benes has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Nadvornik beat Benes 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:34What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Nadvornik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-9 in 23
Nadvornik
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nadvornik 1731 vs Benes 1698
Nadvornik
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nadvornik 100% vs Benes 80%
Nadvornik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nadvornik 90% vs Benes 60%
Nadvornik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nadvornik +9 · Benes +1
Nadvornik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Nadvornik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNadvornik 1.60 / Benes 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Nadvornik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13177756
Nadvornik1.60
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 28 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Benes2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 49 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNadvornik6wins
AwayBenes4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNadvornik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNadvornik83.3%5 of 6
AwayBenes75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nadvornik6Benes4n = 10Nadvornik took 6 of 10
S2Nadvornik6Benes4n = 10Nadvornik took 6 of 10
S3Nadvornik6Benes4n = 10Nadvornik took 6 of 10
S4Nadvornik2Benes4n = 6Benes took 4 of 6
S5Nadvornik2Benes1n = 3Nadvornik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNadvornikBenesN − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.539.3+0.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNadvornikBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 311 vs 267 / 55955.3%47.8%172 / 311 vs 267 / 559Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadvornikNadvornik 1.60/Benes 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.1%
Nadvornik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 11:20V. Nadvornik44821111123P. Benes50111199102
WMay 20 · 07:55V. Nadvornik341211113P. Benes2510780
WMay 18 · 10:25V. Nadvornik3811511113P. Benes30911461
LMay 18 · 09:25V. Nadvornik28711731P. Benes4211911113
WApr 14 · 07:25V. Nadvornik341111123P. Benes2367100
WMar 17 · 10:25V. Nadvornik441111223P. Benes3789200
LMar 15 · 16:55V. Nadvornik399111091P. Benes4111712113
LMar 5 · 18:55V. Nadvornik2915950P. Benes391711113
WMar 5 · 17:55V. Nadvornik52121775113P. Benes551015111182
LFeb 27 · 09:50V. Nadvornik531112111092P. Benes51714712113
V. Nadvornik10
WSep 22 · 12:20V. Nadvornik2.0011115113J. Kocab1.73961181WSep 22 · 11:20V. Nadvornik1.57821111123P. Benes2.25111199102WSep 22 · 10:20V. Nadvornik1.73116711113M. Brozek2.0091111982WSep 10 · 14:25V. Nadvornik1.28116612113O. Fiklik3.15911111072WSep 10 · 13:25O. Fiklik2.505790V. Nadvornik1.501111113WSep 10 · 12:25V. Nadvornik1.672111110113A. Rek2.1011661262WSep 10 · 10:55J. Vonasek2.509133111V. Nadvornik1.50111111133WSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123LSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152
P. Benes10
WSep 22 · 12:50P. Benes1.8313121011123M. Brozek1.831114129102LSep 22 · 11:20V. Nadvornik1.57821111123P. Benes2.25111199102WSep 22 · 10:50J. Kocab1.918980P. Benes1.801111113WSep 21 · 18:28P. Benes1.8011118123M. Brozek1.919711101WSep 21 · 17:25J. Kocab2.008450P. Benes1.731111113LSep 21 · 16:25P. Benes1.8311991572M. Brozek1.839111113113WSep 21 · 14:55D. Hyza1.9181070P. Benes1.801112113LSep 17 · 13:28P. Benes1.9181251152J. Kocab1.801110115113WSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes1.73691313113J. Kocab2.001111111192LSep 17 · 11:20P. Benes2.0041050J. Zacharda1.731112113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.