TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Benes vs Michal Brozek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1311121410121191210
Michal Brozek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Michal Brozek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 114 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Pavel Benes at 56.0%
114 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 33–26 Michal Brozek Michal Brozek has won 26 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:29What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Brozek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-26 in 59
Benes
Correct
gap of 7 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1689 vs Brozek 1640
Benes
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 60% vs Brozek 40%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 50% vs Brozek 30%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -1 · Brozek -3
Brozek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.83 / Brozek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13173277
Benes1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Brozek1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes4wins
AwayBrozek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBrozek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes66.7%2 of 3
AwayBrozek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes3Brozek7n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S2Benes6Brozek4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S3Benes3Brozek7n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S4Benes7Brozek2n = 9Benes took 7 of 9
S5Benes1Brozek3n = 4Brozek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesBrozekBenes − BrozekBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.140.9−0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime266 / 558 vs 524 / 101247.7%51.8%266 / 558 vs 524 / 1012Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.83/Brozek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 18:28P. Benes4211118123M. Brozek379711101
LSep 21 · 16:25P. Benes5111991572M. Brozek559111113113
WSep 15 · 07:25P. Benes47681111113M. Brozek4211118662
LSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes32911571M. Brozek3811511113
WSep 7 · 19:55P. Benes4011711113M. Brozek30511681
WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes45101111133M. Brozek401289111
LSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes46611811102M. Brozek46118114123
LAug 24 · 10:04P. Benes184950M. Brozek331111113
LAug 24 · 08:55P. Benes31811481M. Brozek3611311113
LAug 20 · 10:50P. Benes49101281182M. Brozek521210118113
P. Benes10
LSep 22 · 11:20V. Nadvornik1.57821111123P. Benes2.25111199102WSep 22 · 10:50J. Kocab1.918980P. Benes1.801111113WSep 21 · 18:28P. Benes1.8011118123M. Brozek1.919711101WSep 21 · 17:25J. Kocab2.008450P. Benes1.731111113LSep 21 · 16:25P. Benes1.8311991572M. Brozek1.839111113113WSep 21 · 14:55D. Hyza1.9181070P. Benes1.801112113LSep 17 · 13:28P. Benes1.9181251152J. Kocab1.801110115113WSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes1.73691313113J. Kocab2.001111111192LSep 17 · 11:20P. Benes2.0041050J. Zacharda1.731112113LSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113
M. Brozek10
LSep 22 · 13:35J. Kocab1.441111113M. Brozek2.632630LSep 22 · 11:50M. Brozek2.3831171182J. Kocab1.53117115113LSep 22 · 10:20V. Nadvornik1.73116711113M. Brozek2.0091111982LSep 21 · 18:28P. Benes1.8011118123M. Brozek1.919711101WSep 21 · 16:55D. Hyza2.00410111172M. Brozek1.73111269113WSep 21 · 16:25P. Benes1.8311991572M. Brozek1.839111113113LSep 21 · 15:25M. Brozek2.5051111912J. Kocab1.50119811113LSep 20 · 22:10M. Brozek2.50911771D. Bochnak1.5011411113LSep 20 · 20:55M. Brozek1.809640J. Zacharda1.911111113LSep 20 · 19:55M. Brozek4.003590M. Cerny1.221111113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Brozek
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