TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Michal Brozek
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911114711711––
David Bochnak
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held David Bochnak at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 11–10 David Bochnak David Bochnak has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Bochnak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1672 vs Bochnak 1759
Bochnak
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 0% vs Bochnak 20%
Bochnak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 20% vs Bochnak 50%
Bochnak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek -6 · Bochnak -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Bochnak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 2.50 / Bochnak 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Bochnak)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13166824
Brozek2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 69 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back15% 11 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Bochnak1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 130 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it81% 99 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek3wins
AwayBochnak7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek75%3 of 4
AwayBochnak100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S2Brozek4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S3Brozek4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S4Brozek4Bochnak3n = 7Brozek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekBochnakBrozek − BochnakBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.437.3−2.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime525 / 1009 vs 360 / 58652%61.4%525 / 1009 vs 360 / 586Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBrozek 2.50/Bochnak 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bochnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 12:55M. Brozek46115911102D. Bochnak44711113123
WSep 7 · 18:55M. Brozek341111123D. Bochnak2596100
LAug 29 · 20:55M. Brozek214890D. Bochnak331111113
LAug 7 · 15:25M. Brozek4791181182D. Bochnak48116119113
LAug 2 · 22:28M. Brozek26431181D. Bochnak3811115113
LAug 2 · 18:55M. Brozek239680D. Bochnak331111113
LJul 29 · 16:55M. Brozek33913921D. Bochnak44111111113
WJul 23 · 18:35M. Brozek3911115123D. Bochnak328311101
WJul 23 · 17:25M. Brozek4011513113D. Bochnak376111191
LJul 22 · 22:33M. Brozek35891171D. Bochnak3911116113
M. Brozek10
LSep 20 · 20:55M. Brozek1.809640J. Zacharda1.911111113LSep 20 · 19:55M. Brozek4.003590M. Cerny1.221111113WSep 20 · 18:55M. Brozek2.75116117113D. Bochnak1.4091121172LSep 19 · 14:10J. Kocab1.451114113M. Brozek2.5551290LSep 19 · 12:55M. Brozek2.63115911102D. Bochnak1.44711113123LSep 19 · 11:55M. Brozek2.2510590J. Kocab1.571211113LSep 19 · 10:55M. Brozek3.758530M. Cerny1.251111113WSep 15 · 09:58M. Brozek1.44116117113A. Rek2.6381191122WSep 15 · 08:55A. Rek2.504990M. Brozek1.501111113LSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491
D. Bochnak10
LSep 20 · 21:25M. Cerny1.9191112173D. Bochnak1.8011510151LSep 20 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.4481111982J. Zacharda2.63118511113LSep 20 · 18:55M. Brozek2.75116117113D. Bochnak1.4091121172LSep 19 · 14:39D. Bochnak1.5891190M. Cerny2.101113113WSep 19 · 12:55M. Brozek2.63115911102D. Bochnak1.44711113123LSep 19 · 12:25M. Cerny2.1011119123D. Bochnak1.678911101WSep 19 · 11:25D. Bochnak1.301111113J. Kocab3.401360WSep 17 · 18:35D. Bochnak1.44111179113J. Zacharda2.6397111182LSep 17 · 17:25D. Bochnak1.67911981M. Cerny2.1011811113WSep 17 · 15:55O. Kadavy1.619370D. Bochnak2.201111113
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