TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
David Bochnak
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118115911811
Jachym Zacharda
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:34 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Bochnak above · Jachym Zacharda below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held David Bochnak at 65.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H David Bochnak 55–31 Jachym Zacharda Jachym Zacharda has won 31 of their 86 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:34What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bochnak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-31 in 86
Bochnak
Wrong
gap of 24 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bochnak 1799 vs Zacharda 1707
Bochnak
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bochnak 40% vs Zacharda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bochnak 50% vs Zacharda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bochnak -2 · Zacharda -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Bochnak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBochnak 1.44 / Zacharda 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Bochnak)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13164711
Bochnak1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 130 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it81% 99 of 123
Zacharda2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 25 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back11% 5 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBochnak7wins
AwayZacharda3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBochnak85.7%6 of 7
AwayZacharda66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bochnak7Zacharda3n = 10Bochnak took 7 of 10
S2Bochnak5Zacharda5n = 10split evenly
S3Bochnak4Zacharda6n = 10Zacharda took 6 of 10
S4Bochnak5Zacharda4n = 9Bochnak took 5 of 9
S5Bochnak3Zacharda0n = 3Bochnak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBochnakZachardaB − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.038.7+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBochnakZachardaBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 584 vs 130 / 27361.6%47.6%360 / 584 vs 130 / 273Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBochnak 1.44/Zacharda 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zacharda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 18:35D. Bochnak49111179113J. Zacharda4697111182
WSep 17 · 15:25D. Bochnak43111110113J. Zacharda30671251
LSep 14 · 22:45D. Bochnak29511941J. Zacharda4111811113
WSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak48111115113J. Zacharda40781781
LSep 13 · 20:25D. Bochnak331166101J. Zacharda4281111123
WSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak52991111123J. Zacharda45111194102
WSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak511410511113J. Zacharda47121211572
LSep 3 · 22:33D. Bochnak401491161J. Zacharda4216114113
WSep 3 · 21:25D. Bochnak4212811113J. Zacharda381011981
WAug 30 · 08:25D. Bochnak331111113J. Zacharda163760
D. Bochnak10
LSep 20 · 21:25M. Cerny1.9191112173D. Bochnak1.8011510151LSep 19 · 14:39D. Bochnak1.5891190M. Cerny2.101113113WSep 19 · 12:55M. Brozek2.63115911102D. Bochnak1.44711113123LSep 19 · 12:25M. Cerny2.1011119123D. Bochnak1.678911101WSep 19 · 11:25D. Bochnak1.301111113J. Kocab3.401360WSep 17 · 18:35D. Bochnak1.44111179113J. Zacharda2.6397111182LSep 17 · 17:25D. Bochnak1.67911981M. Cerny2.1011811113WSep 17 · 15:55O. Kadavy1.619370D. Bochnak2.201111113WSep 17 · 15:25J. Zacharda2.63671251D. Bochnak1.44111110113LSep 14 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.36511941J. Zacharda2.8011811113
J. Zacharda10
WSep 20 · 20:55M. Brozek1.809640J. Zacharda1.911111113LSep 20 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.388490M. Cerny1.531111113LSep 17 · 18:35D. Bochnak1.44111179113J. Zacharda2.6397111182WSep 17 · 16:55O. Kadavy1.61612100J. Zacharda2.201114123WSep 17 · 16:25M. Cerny1.53119731J. Zacharda2.3891111113LSep 17 · 15:25J. Zacharda2.63671251D. Bochnak1.44111110113WSep 17 · 14:00M. Cerny1.53111110692J. Zacharda2.38921211113LSep 17 · 12:50J. Zacharda2.50851281M. Cerny1.50111110113WSep 17 · 11:20P. Benes2.0041050J. Zacharda1.731112113WSep 14 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.36511941J. Zacharda2.8011811113
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