TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Michal Brozek
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119611112711117
David Bochnak
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:11 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 86 set 5, 11-7 — our read held David Bochnak at 56.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 11–10 David Bochnak David Bochnak has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:11What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bochnak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1673 vs Bochnak 1814
Bochnak
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 20% vs Bochnak 60%
Bochnak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 40% vs Bochnak 60%
Bochnak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek -4 · Bochnak -1
Brozek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Bochnak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 2.75 / Bochnak 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Bochnak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13163195
Brozek2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 19)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 69 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back15% 11 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Bochnak1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 130 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it81% 99 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek3wins
AwayBochnak7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek75%3 of 4
AwayBochnak100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S2Brozek4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S3Brozek4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S4Brozek4Bochnak3n = 7Brozek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekBochnakBrozek − BochnakBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.437.3−2.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime529 / 1014 vs 363 / 58752.2%61.8%529 / 1014 vs 363 / 587Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBrozek 2.75/Bochnak 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.1%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 12:55M. Brozek46115911102D. Bochnak44711113123
WSep 7 · 18:55M. Brozek341111123D. Bochnak2596100
LAug 29 · 20:55M. Brozek214890D. Bochnak331111113
LAug 7 · 15:25M. Brozek4791181182D. Bochnak48116119113
LAug 2 · 22:28M. Brozek26431181D. Bochnak3811115113
LAug 2 · 18:55M. Brozek239680D. Bochnak331111113
LJul 29 · 16:55M. Brozek33913921D. Bochnak44111111113
WJul 23 · 18:35M. Brozek3911115123D. Bochnak328311101
WJul 23 · 17:25M. Brozek4011513113D. Bochnak376111191
LJul 22 · 22:33M. Brozek35891171D. Bochnak3911116113
M. Brozek10
LSep 20 · 19:55M. Brozek4.003590M. Cerny1.221111113LSep 19 · 14:10J. Kocab1.451114113M. Brozek2.5551290LSep 19 · 12:55M. Brozek2.63115911102D. Bochnak1.44711113123LSep 19 · 11:55M. Brozek2.2510590J. Kocab1.571211113LSep 19 · 10:55M. Brozek3.758530M. Cerny1.251111113WSep 15 · 09:58M. Brozek1.44116117113A. Rek2.6381191122WSep 15 · 08:55A. Rek2.504990M. Brozek1.501111113LSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491LSep 15 · 07:25M. Brozek1.7311118662P. Benes2.00681111113WSep 14 · 17:04M. Brozek1.8011115113D. Hyza1.91761141
D. Bochnak10
LSep 19 · 14:39D. Bochnak1.5891190M. Cerny2.101113113WSep 19 · 12:55M. Brozek2.63115911102D. Bochnak1.44711113123LSep 19 · 12:25M. Cerny2.1011119123D. Bochnak1.678911101WSep 19 · 11:25D. Bochnak1.301111113J. Kocab3.401360WSep 17 · 18:35D. Bochnak1.44111179113J. Zacharda2.6397111182LSep 17 · 17:25D. Bochnak1.67911981M. Cerny2.1011811113WSep 17 · 15:55O. Kadavy1.619370D. Bochnak2.201111113WSep 17 · 15:25J. Zacharda2.63671251D. Bochnak1.44111110113LSep 14 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.36511941J. Zacharda2.8011811113WSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.36111115113J. Zacharda3.00781781
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