TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Kotrbacek vs Tomas Hanke 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11711131311116––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Hanke to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Kotrbacek above · Tomas Hanke below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 83 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Tomas Hanke at 62.5%
83 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kotrbacek 0–2 Tomas Hanke Petr Kotrbacek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2562.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 4.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hanke
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kotrbacek 1493 vs Hanke 1482
Kotrbacek
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotrbacek 80% vs Hanke 60%
Kotrbacek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotrbacek 80% vs Hanke 50%
Kotrbacek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotrbacek +1 · Hanke +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Hanke) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotrbacek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotrbacek 2.50 / Hanke 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Hanke)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270542
Kotrbacek2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 25 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back13% 3 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Hanke1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 74 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 52 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKotrbacek0wins
AwayHanke2wins
Hanke leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away2
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKotrbacekHankeK − HBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match34.042.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotrbacekHankeBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 244 vs 236 / 44847.1%52.7%115 / 244 vs 236 / 448Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HankeKotrbacek 2.50/Hanke 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Hanke · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kotrbacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LApr 26 · 14:30P. Kotrbacek341191041T. Hanke4391112113
LFeb 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek34881171T. Hanke4111118113
P. Kotrbacek10
WOct 10 · 17:30P. Kotrbacek2.751110126113F. Kubos1.40912101192LSep 8 · 17:08J. Blazek3.2511911113P. Kotrbacek1.33811491WSep 8 · 15:30J. Hanacek1.8371181262P. Kotrbacek1.831171110113WSep 8 · 15:00P. Kotrbacek1.4411129113M. Melisek2.637101151WSep 8 · 14:00P. Kotrbacek1.401112113J. Blazek2.7521090WSep 4 · 16:40P. Kotrbacek2.38127712113F. Husek1.531011111092LSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113WSep 4 · 14:30F. Husek2.0071111862P. Kotrbacek1.73118511113WSep 4 · 14:00L. Tuma1.57101111922P. Kotrbacek2.25127811113WSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102
T. Hanke10
WOct 10 · 18:00F. Schmidtmayer2.207411101T. Hanke1.6111119123LOct 9 · 17:08T. Hanke1.571331261F. Schmidtmayer2.25111114113LOct 9 · 16:00J. Hanacek2.20911811113T. Hanke1.6111511672WOct 9 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.3811911962T. Hanke1.53711311113WOct 9 · 13:30E. Ondracek3.00512791T. Hanke1.36111011113WSep 26 · 12:41T. Bertho1.909670T. Hanke1.80111193LSep 26 · 11:30T. Hanke1.67513131032V. Herrmann2.1011111112113LSep 26 · 10:30T. Hanke2.2541270L. Stoces1.571114113LSep 26 · 09:30T. Hanke1.8011971162T. Bertho1.91811115113WSep 19 · 12:23O. Plyska2.505890T. Hanke1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Kotrbacek
Nothing scheduled
T. Hanke
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