TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Kotrbacek vs Filip Kubos 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11910121210611119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:26 and never touched: 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeFilip Kubos to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Kotrbacek above · Filip Kubos below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 101 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Filip Kubos at 67.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kotrbacek 3–6 Filip Kubos Petr Kotrbacek has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2667.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kubos
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Kubos
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotrbacek 1482 vs Kubos 1506
Kubos
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotrbacek 80% vs Kubos 40%
Kotrbacek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotrbacek 70% vs Kubos 40%
Kotrbacek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotrbacek -1 · Kubos +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Kubos) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubos form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotrbacek 2.75 / Kubos 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Kubos)-3.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270898
Kotrbacek2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 32 days ago (Sep 08) · back after a break
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 25 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back13% 3 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Kubos1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 51 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it63% 39 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKotrbacek3wins
AwayKubos6wins
4 of 9 to a deciderKubos leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotrbacek33.3%2 of 6
AwayKubos66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotrbacek6Kubos3n = 9Kotrbacek took 6 of 9
S2Kotrbacek3Kubos6n = 9Kubos took 6 of 9
S3Kotrbacek6Kubos3n = 9Kotrbacek took 6 of 9
S4Kotrbacek2Kubos6n = 8Kubos took 6 of 8
S5Kotrbacek1Kubos2n = 3Kubos took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKotrbacekKubosKotrbacek − KubosBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match38.640.1−1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotrbacekKubosBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 269 vs 356 / 71947.6%49.5%128 / 269 vs 356 / 719Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KubosKotrbacek 2.75/Kubos 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Kubos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kotrbacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 6 · 14:30P. Kotrbacek42116114102F. Kubos45611511123
LJul 24 · 16:59P. Kotrbacek32751191F. Kubos4111118113
WJul 24 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek341211113F. Kubos2310760
LMar 19 · 21:48P. Kotrbacek345811101F. Kubos4311119123
LMar 19 · 20:45P. Kotrbacek30117661F. Kubos3631111113
WFeb 28 · 21:28P. Kotrbacek47711611123F. Kubos47118117102
LFeb 28 · 20:30P. Kotrbacek4211811752F. Kubos46511811113
WSep 27 · 05:30P. Kotrbacek48111111153F. Kubos406138131
P. Kotrbacek10
WOct 10 · 18:30P. Kotrbacek2.50111113113T. Hanke1.507131161LSep 8 · 17:08J. Blazek3.2511911113P. Kotrbacek1.33811491WSep 8 · 15:30J. Hanacek1.8371181262P. Kotrbacek1.831171110113WSep 8 · 15:00P. Kotrbacek1.4411129113M. Melisek2.637101151WSep 8 · 14:00P. Kotrbacek1.401112113J. Blazek2.7521090WSep 4 · 16:40P. Kotrbacek2.38127712113F. Husek1.531011111092LSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113WSep 4 · 14:30F. Husek2.0071111862P. Kotrbacek1.73118511113WSep 4 · 14:00L. Tuma1.57101111922P. Kotrbacek2.25127811113WSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102
F. Kubos10
WOct 6 · 20:28F. Kubos1.801111123T. Bertho1.9177100LOct 6 · 20:00F. Kubos2.25119771J. Gruber1.5751111113LOct 6 · 18:30P. Maly1.8011119113F. Kubos1.91861171LOct 6 · 18:00T. Bertho2.1011911113F. Kubos1.67411751WOct 5 · 16:29V. Herrmann1.578141111102F. Kubos2.25111674123LOct 5 · 15:30F. Kubos2.38861181O. Horak1.5311118113LOct 5 · 14:30F. Kubos2.008111591M. Soukup1.7311917113WOct 5 · 13:30F. Kubos2.5091111113V. Herrmann1.50119951LOct 4 · 21:00F. Kubos1.53125111042K. Jirousek2.381011612113WOct 4 · 20:00K. Jirousek2.501171051F. Kubos1.5041112113
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