TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Hanke vs Vit Herrmann 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511131113111012311
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:59 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Hanke to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Hanke above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 100 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Tomas Hanke at 56.5%
100 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hanke 7–4 Vit Herrmann Vit Herrmann has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:59What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hanke
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Hanke
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hanke 1483 vs Herrmann 1550
Herrmann
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hanke 20% vs Herrmann 40%
Herrmann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hanke 40% vs Herrmann 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hanke -2 · Herrmann -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hanke) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanke form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanke 1.67 / Herrmann 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hanke)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13196577
Hanke1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 71 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it78% 50 of 64
Herrmann2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 60 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back31% 18 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHanke7wins
AwayHerrmann3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHanke leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHanke75%6 of 8
AwayHerrmannn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanke8Herrmann2n = 10Hanke took 8 of 10
S2Hanke7Herrmann3n = 10Hanke took 7 of 10
S3Hanke5Herrmann4n = 9Hanke took 5 of 9
S4Hanke5Herrmann1n = 6Hanke took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHankeHerrmannHanke − HerrmannBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.935.4+4.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHankeHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 482 vs 214 / 43852.5%48.9%253 / 482 vs 214 / 438Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HankeHanke 1.67/Herrmann 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hanke · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Herrmann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 1 · 09:30T. Hanke46710111172V. Herrmann48111277113
WJun 6 · 14:15T. Hanke4371111143V. Herrmann391188121
WMay 7 · 18:15T. Hanke4712159113V. Herrmann4210131181
WOct 8 · 19:45T. Hanke371111153V. Herrmann2795130
LSep 17 · 20:24T. Hanke4311761182V. Herrmann47711117113
LSep 17 · 19:30T. Hanke33118681V. Herrmann4291111113
WAug 3 · 16:30T. Hanke341112113V. Herrmann2571080
WAug 3 · 15:30T. Hanke331111113V. Herrmann155730
WJul 26 · 13:30T. Hanke43111110113V. Herrmann34791261
T. Hanke10
WSep 26 · 12:41T. Bertho1.909670T. Hanke1.80111193LSep 26 · 10:30T. Hanke2.2541270L. Stoces1.571114113LSep 26 · 09:30T. Hanke1.8011971162T. Bertho1.91811115113WSep 19 · 12:23O. Plyska2.505890T. Hanke1.501111113LSep 19 · 11:15T. Hanke1.5741090M. Vana2.251112113LSep 19 · 10:15T. Hanke1.67551631T. Bertho2.10111114113LSep 19 · 09:15T. Hanke1.5311101091O. Plyska2.3881212112WSep 18 · 16:28T. Bertho2.0011137572T. Hanke1.736111111113LSep 18 · 15:30Z. Kuksa1.8041111113T. Hanke1.91119891WSep 18 · 15:00T. Hanke1.7371113113T. Bertho2.001161141
V. Herrmann10
WSep 26 · 11:00V. Herrmann1.61111211113T. Bertho2.201310891LSep 26 · 10:00V. Herrmann2.00111261062L. Stoces1.737101112113LSep 21 · 20:53V. Herrmann1.837690L. Stoces1.831111113WSep 21 · 19:45F. Kubos2.2591111562V. Herrmann1.57117811113LSep 21 · 18:45L. Stoces1.91121111113V. Herrmann1.80146891WSep 21 · 17:15S. Kalensky1.913660V. Herrmann1.801111113LSep 19 · 16:53J. Juppa1.57119124103V. Herrmann2.25511101162WSep 19 · 15:15V. Herrmann1.801113811113L. Stoces1.9161511982LSep 19 · 14:15V. Herrmann2.00511991J. Juppa1.7311911113WSep 19 · 13:15V. Herrmann2.00118511103V. Lopata1.7381111892
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