TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Frantisek Schmidtmayer vs Tomas Hanke 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911113911611
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeTomas Hanke to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Schmidtmayer above · Tomas Hanke below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Tomas Hanke at 63.6%
89 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Schmidtmayer 18–18 Tomas Hanke Dead even across their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5763.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hanke
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-18 in 36
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schmidtmayer 1427 vs Hanke 1489
Hanke
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmidtmayer 40% vs Hanke 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmidtmayer 60% vs Hanke 40%
Schmidtmayer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmidtmayer +1 · Hanke +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Hanke) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanke form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmidtmayer 2.375 / Hanke 1.533
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Hanke)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266201
Schmidtmayer2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 35 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Hanke1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 72 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it79% 51 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchmidtmayer5wins
AwayHanke5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchmidtmayer75%3 of 4
AwayHanke66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schmidtmayer4Hanke6n = 10Hanke took 6 of 10
S2Schmidtmayer5Hanke5n = 10split evenly
S3Schmidtmayer5Hanke5n = 10split evenly
S4Schmidtmayer4Hanke4n = 8split evenly
S5Schmidtmayer2Hanke2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchmidtmayerHankeS − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.940.0−1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmidtmayerHankeBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 436 vs 235 / 44646.3%52.7%202 / 436 vs 235 / 446Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HankeSchmidtmayer 2.38/Hanke 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Hanke · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hanke won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJul 30 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer4171171152T. Hanke45115117113
LMay 14 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer345101181T. Hanke3911125113
WDec 22 · 21:18F. Schmidtmayer539111111113T. Hanke4811961392
LDec 22 · 19:15F. Schmidtmayer2678110T. Hanke351111133
LDec 16 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer4691171182T. Hanke49117119113
LNov 27 · 16:45F. Schmidtmayer28136541T. Hanke44111111113
WOct 9 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer49118118113T. Hanke4361161192
WOct 5 · 20:55F. Schmidtmayer331111113T. Hanke269980
WSep 10 · 20:30F. Schmidtmayer4071111113T. Hanke31116861
F. Schmidtmayer10
WOct 9 · 15:30E. Ondracek2.10911631F. Schmidtmayer1.6711911113WOct 9 · 14:00F. Schmidtmayer1.61101111123J. Hanacek2.201274101LSep 30 · 20:29M. Drabek1.91119118113F. Schmidtmayer1.8081191182LSep 30 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2571281192O. Karpisek1.571110118113WSep 30 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83541111133M. Drabek1.83111183112LSep 30 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2011512572M. Vana1.612111011113WSep 26 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer1.57611114113J. Mejzlik2.2511921192LSep 26 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer2.204770A. Dvoracek1.611111113WSep 25 · 16:29T. Stejskal3.254111311F. Schmidtmayer1.33111311113WSep 25 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer1.441111113T. Stejskal2.637560
T. Hanke10
WOct 9 · 13:30E. Ondracek3.00512791T. Hanke1.36111011113WSep 26 · 12:41T. Bertho1.909670T. Hanke1.80111193LSep 26 · 11:30T. Hanke1.67513131032V. Herrmann2.1011111112113LSep 26 · 10:30T. Hanke2.2541270L. Stoces1.571114113LSep 26 · 09:30T. Hanke1.8011971162T. Bertho1.91811115113WSep 19 · 12:23O. Plyska2.505890T. Hanke1.501111113LSep 19 · 11:15T. Hanke1.5741090M. Vana2.251112113LSep 19 · 10:15T. Hanke1.67551631T. Bertho2.10111114113LSep 19 · 09:15T. Hanke1.5311101091O. Plyska2.3881212112WSep 18 · 16:28T. Bertho2.0011137572T. Hanke1.736111111113
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