TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Evzen Ondracek vs Frantisek Schmidtmayer 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119611311––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:29 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Schmidtmayer to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingEvzen Ondracek above · Frantisek Schmidtmayer below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 71 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Frantisek Schmidtmayer at 56.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Evzen Ondracek 3–1 Frantisek Schmidtmayer Frantisek Schmidtmayer has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2956.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Schmidtmayer
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Ondracek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ondracek 1385 vs Schmidtmayer 1418
Schmidtmayer
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ondracek 20% vs Schmidtmayer 40%
Schmidtmayer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ondracek 30% vs Schmidtmayer 50%
Schmidtmayer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ondracek +1 · Schmidtmayer -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Schmidtmayer) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schmidtmayer form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOndracek 2.10 / Schmidtmayer 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Schmidtmayer)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266191
Ondracek2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 18 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Schmidtmayer1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 66 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it73% 47 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeOndracek3wins
AwaySchmidtmayer1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderOndracek leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ondracek2Schmidtmayer2n = 4split evenly
S2Ondracek3Schmidtmayer1n = 4Ondracek took 3 of 4
S3Ondracek2Schmidtmayer2n = 4split evenly
S4Ondracek3Schmidtmayer1n = 4Ondracek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricOndracekSchmidtmayerO − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match43.540.8+2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOndracekSchmidtmayerBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 219 vs 201 / 43649.8%46.1%109 / 219 vs 201 / 436Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SchmidtmayerOndracek 2.10/Schmidtmayer 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Schmidtmayer · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Schmidtmayer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WMay 25 · 17:30E. Ondracek3961111113F. Schmidtmayer36118891
LMay 6 · 13:45E. Ondracek4781181192F. Schmidtmayer50118119113
WJan 29 · 17:27E. Ondracek4011117113F. Schmidtmayer35881181
WJan 29 · 15:30E. Ondracek48116119113F. Schmidtmayer4251191162
E. Ondracek10
WOct 9 · 16:39J. Hanacek2.00116111132E. Ondracek1.73131166113WOct 9 · 14:30E. Ondracek1.73111112113J. Hanacek2.00861471LOct 9 · 13:30E. Ondracek3.00512791T. Hanke1.36111011113LOct 8 · 16:33L. Tuma1.539111110113E. Ondracek2.3811551242LOct 8 · 15:30E. Ondracek2.109118121J. Mejzlik1.6711911143LOct 8 · 14:30E. Ondracek1.91841191L. Tuma1.8011119113LOct 8 · 13:30E. Ondracek1.678560K. Polak2.101111113LOct 2 · 16:43E. Ondracek7.00111110J. Blazek1.081113133LOct 2 · 16:30E. Ondracek2.101110J. Blazek1.6711132WOct 2 · 15:30J. Blazek2.3841112862E. Ondracek1.531191011113
F. Schmidtmayer10
LOct 9 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.3811911962T. Hanke1.53711311113WOct 9 · 14:00F. Schmidtmayer1.61101111123J. Hanacek2.201274101LSep 30 · 20:29M. Drabek1.91119118113F. Schmidtmayer1.8081191182LSep 30 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2571281192O. Karpisek1.571110118113WSep 30 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83541111133M. Drabek1.83111183112LSep 30 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2011512572M. Vana1.612111011113WSep 26 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer1.57611114113J. Mejzlik2.2511921192LSep 26 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer2.204770A. Dvoracek1.611111113WSep 25 · 16:29T. Stejskal3.254111311F. Schmidtmayer1.33111311113WSep 25 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer1.441111113T. Stejskal2.637560
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