TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Blazek vs Evzen Ondracek 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111191210811611
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:20 and never touched: 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeEvzen Ondracek to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Blazek above · Evzen Ondracek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Evzen Ondracek at 67.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jan Blazek 7–12 Evzen Ondracek Jan Blazek has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2067.1%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
clears by 1.9pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Ondracek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Ondracek
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Blazek 1409 vs Ondracek 1430
Ondracek
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Blazek 60% vs Ondracek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Blazek 60% vs Ondracek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Blazek +2 · Ondracek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Ondracek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Blazek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBlazek 2.375 / Ondracek 1.533
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Ondracek)+1.9pp
Setka Cup · #13229330
Blazek2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 51 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Ondracek1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 25 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it74% 17 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBlazek4wins
AwayOndracek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOndracek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBlazekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOndracek75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Blazek2Ondracek8n = 10Ondracek took 8 of 10
S2Blazek6Ondracek4n = 10Blazek took 6 of 10
S3Blazek7Ondracek3n = 10Blazek took 7 of 10
S4Blazek1Ondracek5n = 6Ondracek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBlazekOndracekB − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.835.1−1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBlazekOndracekBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 379 vs 110 / 21543.8%51.2%166 / 379 vs 110 / 215Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OndracekBlazek 2.38/Ondracek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Ondracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ondracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 15:30J. Blazek176650E. Ondracek331111113
LSep 14 · 15:30J. Blazek30411781E. Ondracek4211911113
WAug 27 · 15:30J. Blazek48911116113E. Ondracek4211391182
LMay 6 · 16:18J. Blazek335121151E. Ondracek3711141113
LMay 6 · 14:15J. Blazek2878130E. Ondracek371111153
WFeb 6 · 17:26J. Blazek4181111113E. Ondracek34118961
LFeb 6 · 15:15J. Blazek24351151E. Ondracek3811115113
WOct 20 · 16:35J. Blazek331111113E. Ondracek183960
WOct 20 · 15:30J. Blazek331111113E. Ondracek199460
LSep 15 · 13:30J. Blazek51811111472E. Ondracek51114916113
J. Blazek10
WOct 2 · 14:30J. Blazek3.2511811113L. Tuma1.33811151WOct 2 · 13:30J. Blazek1.831111113J. Hanacek1.837780LSep 24 · 12:43A. Dvoracek1.67128114113J. Blazek2.10101161152WSep 24 · 11:15M. Vorel1.448850J. Blazek2.631111113LSep 24 · 10:45J. Blazek1.73119991M. Obraz2.0051111113LSep 24 · 09:45J. Blazek2.1071111872A. Dvoracek1.67116911113LSep 23 · 13:03M. Melisek1.6711117113J. Blazek2.10891191WSep 23 · 11:30R. Slunecko1.44111281152J. Blazek2.635101113113WSep 23 · 11:00J. Blazek1.801213113D. Sabuka1.91101180WSep 23 · 10:00J. Blazek2.25511117113M. Melisek1.5711791132
E. Ondracek10
LOct 2 · 16:30E. Ondracek2.101110J. Blazek1.6711132WOct 2 · 15:00E. Ondracek1.801111113J. Hanacek1.919890LOct 2 · 14:00E. Ondracek1.9171111562L. Tuma1.80119411113WSep 21 · 16:31P. Fiser2.25511461E. Ondracek1.5711811113LSep 21 · 15:30E. Ondracek1.4431250P. Fiser2.631114113WSep 21 · 14:30E. Ondracek1.83911137123K. Polak1.831181111102WSep 21 · 13:30E. Ondracek1.611111113M. Melisek2.208860WSep 17 · 17:09M. Melisek1.80481181E. Ondracek1.9111115113WSep 17 · 15:30J. Blazek2.506650E. Ondracek1.501111113WSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152
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