TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Frantisek Schmidtmayer vs Tomas Hanke 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7114111191012––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:43 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Hanke to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Schmidtmayer above · Tomas Hanke below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Tomas Hanke at 57.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Schmidtmayer 19–19 Tomas Hanke Dead even across their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4357.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hanke
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-19 in 38
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schmidtmayer 1442 vs Hanke 1472
Hanke
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmidtmayer 60% vs Hanke 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmidtmayer 50% vs Hanke 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmidtmayer +2 · Hanke -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Hanke) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schmidtmayer form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmidtmayer 2.20 / Hanke 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Hanke)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270442
Schmidtmayer2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 09)
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 36 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Hanke1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 09)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 74 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 52 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchmidtmayer4wins
AwayHanke6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHanke leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchmidtmayer50%2 of 4
AwayHanke66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schmidtmayer4Hanke6n = 10Hanke took 6 of 10
S2Schmidtmayer5Hanke5n = 10split evenly
S3Schmidtmayer6Hanke4n = 10Schmidtmayer took 6 of 10
S4Schmidtmayer3Hanke5n = 8Hanke took 5 of 8
S5Schmidtmayer2Hanke3n = 5Hanke took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchmidtmayerHankeS − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.6−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmidtmayerHankeBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 436 vs 236 / 44946.1%52.6%201 / 436 vs 236 / 449Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HankeSchmidtmayer 2.20/Hanke 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Hanke · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hanke won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 17:08F. Schmidtmayer47111114113T. Hanke341331261
LOct 9 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer4611911962T. Hanke43711311113
LJul 30 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer4171171152T. Hanke45115117113
LMay 14 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer345101181T. Hanke3911125113
WDec 22 · 21:18F. Schmidtmayer539111111113T. Hanke4811961392
LDec 22 · 19:15F. Schmidtmayer2678110T. Hanke351111133
LDec 16 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer4691171182T. Hanke49117119113
LNov 27 · 16:45F. Schmidtmayer28136541T. Hanke44111111113
WOct 9 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer49118118113T. Hanke4361161192
WOct 5 · 20:55F. Schmidtmayer331111113T. Hanke269980
F. Schmidtmayer10
WOct 10 · 19:30P. Kotrbacek1.835101191F. Schmidtmayer1.8311127113WOct 10 · 19:00F. Schmidtmayer2.001111113F. Kubos1.737720WOct 9 · 17:08T. Hanke1.571331261F. Schmidtmayer2.25111114113WOct 9 · 15:30E. Ondracek2.10911631F. Schmidtmayer1.6711911113LOct 9 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.3811911962T. Hanke1.53711311113WOct 9 · 14:00F. Schmidtmayer1.61101111123J. Hanacek2.201274101LSep 30 · 20:29M. Drabek1.91119118113F. Schmidtmayer1.8081191182LSep 30 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2571281192O. Karpisek1.571110118113WSep 30 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83541111133M. Drabek1.83111183112LSep 30 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2011512572M. Vana1.612111011113
T. Hanke10
LOct 10 · 18:30P. Kotrbacek2.50111113113T. Hanke1.507131161LOct 9 · 17:08T. Hanke1.571331261F. Schmidtmayer2.25111114113LOct 9 · 16:00J. Hanacek2.20911811113T. Hanke1.6111511672WOct 9 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.3811911962T. Hanke1.53711311113WOct 9 · 13:30E. Ondracek3.00512791T. Hanke1.36111011113WSep 26 · 12:41T. Bertho1.909670T. Hanke1.80111193LSep 26 · 11:30T. Hanke1.67513131032V. Herrmann2.1011111112113LSep 26 · 10:30T. Hanke2.2541270L. Stoces1.571114113LSep 26 · 09:30T. Hanke1.8011971162T. Bertho1.91811115113WSep 19 · 12:23O. Plyska2.505890T. Hanke1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
F. Schmidtmayer
Nothing scheduled
T. Hanke
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