TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Frantisek Schmidtmayer vs Filip Kubos 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117112––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:55 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Kubos to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFrantisek Schmidtmayer above · Filip Kubos below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 49 set 3, 11-2 · our read held Filip Kubos at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Schmidtmayer 4–3 Filip Kubos Filip Kubos has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5554.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kubos
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schmidtmayer 1431 vs Kubos 1495
Kubos
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmidtmayer 60% vs Kubos 20%
Schmidtmayer
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmidtmayer 50% vs Kubos 30%
Schmidtmayer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmidtmayer -1 · Kubos -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kubos) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubos form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmidtmayer 2.00 / Kubos 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kubos)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270733
Schmidtmayer2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 36 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Kubos1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 51 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it63% 39 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSchmidtmayer4wins
AwayKubos3wins
4 of 7 to a deciderSchmidtmayer leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchmidtmayer75%3 of 4
AwayKubos66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schmidtmayer4Kubos3n = 7Schmidtmayer took 4 of 7
S2Schmidtmayer4Kubos3n = 7Schmidtmayer took 4 of 7
S3Schmidtmayer4Kubos3n = 7Schmidtmayer took 4 of 7
S4Schmidtmayer1Kubos5n = 6Kubos took 5 of 6
S5Schmidtmayer3Kubos1n = 4Schmidtmayer took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSchmidtmayerKubosS − KBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match41.938.6+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmidtmayerKubosBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 437 vs 356 / 72046%49.4%201 / 437 vs 356 / 720Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KubosSchmidtmayer 2.00/Kubos 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kubos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Schmidtmayer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 22 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer541111129113F. Kubos4337141182
LAug 9 · 12:19F. Schmidtmayer27351181F. Kubos3611113113
LAug 9 · 10:15F. Schmidtmayer377911101F. Kubos4111117123
LAug 8 · 10:30F. Schmidtmayer4111941162F. Kubos42311116113
WAug 7 · 10:15F. Schmidtmayer517111111113F. Kubos4711681392
WJul 6 · 12:38F. Schmidtmayer331111113F. Kubos195860
WJul 6 · 11:30F. Schmidtmayer501111710113F. Kubos4228111292
F. Schmidtmayer10
WOct 10 · 19:30P. Kotrbacek1.835101191F. Schmidtmayer1.8311127113LOct 10 · 18:00F. Schmidtmayer2.207411101T. Hanke1.6111119123WOct 9 · 17:08T. Hanke1.571331261F. Schmidtmayer2.25111114113WOct 9 · 15:30E. Ondracek2.10911631F. Schmidtmayer1.6711911113LOct 9 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.3811911962T. Hanke1.53711311113WOct 9 · 14:00F. Schmidtmayer1.61101111123J. Hanacek2.201274101LSep 30 · 20:29M. Drabek1.91119118113F. Schmidtmayer1.8081191182LSep 30 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2571281192O. Karpisek1.571110118113WSep 30 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83541111133M. Drabek1.83111183112LSep 30 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2011512572M. Vana1.612111011113
F. Kubos10
LOct 10 · 17:30P. Kotrbacek2.751110126113F. Kubos1.40912101192WOct 6 · 20:28F. Kubos1.801111123T. Bertho1.9177100LOct 6 · 20:00F. Kubos2.25119771J. Gruber1.5751111113LOct 6 · 18:30P. Maly1.8011119113F. Kubos1.91861171LOct 6 · 18:00T. Bertho2.1011911113F. Kubos1.67411751WOct 5 · 16:29V. Herrmann1.578141111102F. Kubos2.25111674123LOct 5 · 15:30F. Kubos2.38861181O. Horak1.5311118113LOct 5 · 14:30F. Kubos2.008111591M. Soukup1.7311917113WOct 5 · 13:30F. Kubos2.5091111113V. Herrmann1.50119951LOct 4 · 21:00F. Kubos1.53125111042K. Jirousek2.381011612113
Upcoming Matches
F. Schmidtmayer
Nothing scheduled
F. Kubos
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