TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marek Bereiter vs Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119114117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:46 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Bereiter to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Bereiter above · Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Marek Bereiter at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Marek Bereiter 2–1 Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4654.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Bereiter
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bereiter 1626 vs Snr 1602
Bereiter
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bereiter 0% vs Snr 60%
Snr
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bereiter 50% vs Snr 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bereiter -5 · Snr -2
Bereiter
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Bereiter) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bereiter form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBereiter 1.727 / Snr 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bereiter)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13259627
Bereiter1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 26 days ago (Sep 12) · back after a break
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 15 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Snr2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 01) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 19 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBereiter2wins
AwaySnr1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBereiter leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bereiter2Snr1n = 3Bereiter took 2 of 3
S2Bereiter1Snr2n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
S3Bereiter1Snr2n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
S4Bereiter2Snr1n = 3Bereiter took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBereiterSnrB − SBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match41.740.7+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBereiterSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 68 vs 128 / 25252.9%50.8%36 / 68 vs 128 / 252Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BereiterBereiter 1.73/Snr 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Bereiter · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Bereiter won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 21 · 09:06M. Bereiter591791111113J. Snr4819115852
LJul 21 · 07:00M. Bereiter27114661J. Snr4291111113
WJun 1 · 15:30M. Bereiter3911116113J. Snr32571191
M. Bereiter10
LSep 12 · 13:00Z. Pagac1.5711811113M. Bereiter2.25811871LSep 12 · 12:00Z. Pagac1.671311133M. Bereiter2.10119110LSep 12 · 11:00D. Unzeitig2.38111287113M. Bereiter1.53610111192LSep 12 · 10:30M. Bereiter1.571112651A. Walek2.2571411113LSep 6 · 09:30M. Bereiter1.807970T. Kypr1.901111113WSep 6 · 08:00T. Kypr1.737111081M. Bereiter2.0011912113WSep 6 · 07:00L. Martinak1.804980M. Bereiter1.911111113WSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172WSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113WSep 5 · 12:00M. Bereiter1.53148811133D. Heczko2.381211118112
J. Snr10
LOct 1 · 09:30J. Schwan2.101171111123J. Snr1.65411137102LOct 1 · 08:00J. Snr1.507111051J. Schwan2.5011312113WOct 1 · 07:30J. Mikula2.631261581J. Snr1.44101117113WOct 1 · 06:00J. Snr1.911211110113D. Heczko1.80103111272WSep 24 · 09:30A. Rinka2.1055110J. Snr1.671111133WSep 24 · 08:00A. Rinka2.1011912922J. Snr1.675111011113WSep 24 · 07:00J. Mikula2.256570J. Snr1.571111113LSep 24 · 06:30J. Snr1.6111491162D. Oborny2.20711115113LSep 8 · 12:59M. Heczko2.751111113J. Snr1.407140LSep 8 · 12:00J. Cabak1.611112123J. Snr2.20510100
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