TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yurii Bondarenko vs Oleg Varlamov 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151171513––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:45 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeYurii Bondarenko to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Bondarenko above · Oleg Varlamov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 15-13
Point 62 set 3, 15-13 — our read held Yurii Bondarenko at 64.5%
62 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Bondarenko 5–2 Oleg Varlamov Oleg Varlamov has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:45What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Bondarenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1637 vs Varlamov 1562
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 80% vs Varlamov 20%
Bondarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 70% vs Varlamov 30%
Bondarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko +2 · Varlamov -4
Varlamov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Bondarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varlamov form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.50 / Varlamov 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Bondarenko)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13203495
Bondarenko1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 14 days ago (Sep 13) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 20 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Varlamov2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 14 days ago (Sep 13) · back after a break
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back32% 21 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBondarenko5wins
AwayVarlamov2wins
3 of 7 to a deciderBondarenko leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayVarlamov25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko3Varlamov4n = 7Varlamov took 4 of 7
S2Bondarenko5Varlamov2n = 7Bondarenko took 5 of 7
S3Bondarenko1Varlamov6n = 7Varlamov took 6 of 7
S4Bondarenko5Varlamov2n = 7Bondarenko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricBondarenkoVarlamovB − VBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match37.838.0−0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoVarlamovBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 103 vs 254 / 53854.4%47.2%56 / 103 vs 254 / 538Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.50/Varlamov 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 26 · 14:10Y. Bondarenko3961111113O. Varlamov33117961
LAug 23 · 10:30Y. Bondarenko28118451O. Varlamov3851111113
WJul 12 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko40113411113O. Varlamov3811111782
LJul 5 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko29611661O. Varlamov3711411113
WFeb 1 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko49911711113O. Varlamov4111311972
WOct 5 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko4212126123O. Varlamov41101011101
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 13 · 09:00Y. Bondarenko1.441011711153O. Varlamov2.63128118142WSep 13 · 07:30Y. Bondarenko1.801111113A. Zozulia1.916860LSep 13 · 06:00Y. Bondarenko2.2011861192Y. Holoborodko1.61311116113WSep 13 · 04:30Y. Bondarenko1.83111017113A. Droshchynskyi1.837121531WSep 9 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.00101181162Y. Bondarenko1.73123117113WSep 9 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko1.8011137113M. Tiutiunnyk1.917111171LSep 9 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.739890O. Nadporozhskyi2.001111113WSep 9 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.531111113D. Habrelyan2.388730LSep 9 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.008116111Y. Holoborodko1.7311911133WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113
O. Varlamov10
LSep 13 · 11:00O. Varlamov3.0010430A. Droshchynskyi1.361211113LSep 13 · 09:00Y. Bondarenko1.441011711153O. Varlamov2.63128118142LSep 13 · 08:00O. Varlamov1.8068111182Y. Holoborodko1.91111186113LSep 13 · 07:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.61881612133O. Varlamov2.2011111410112WSep 13 · 05:30O. Varlamov1.91921112113A. Zozulia1.80111171062WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750
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