TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladimir Lopata vs Matej Svitac 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Vladimir Lopata
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119114511118––
Matej Svitac
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
How it is goingVladimir Lopata above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 70 set 4, 11-8
70 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Lopata 11–18 Matej Svitac Vladimir Lopata has won 11 of their 29 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Svitac beat Lopata 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svitac form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLopata 2.20 / Svitac 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Svitac)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13183600
Lopata2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 10 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Svitac1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 65 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 49 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLopata3wins
AwaySvitac7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSvitac leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLopata25%1 of 4
AwaySvitac66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lopata4Svitac6n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S2Lopata3Svitac7n = 10Svitac took 7 of 10
S3Lopata6Svitac4n = 10Lopata took 6 of 10
S4Lopata4Svitac6n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S5Lopata2Svitac3n = 5Svitac took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLopataSvitacL − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.043.7−5.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLopataSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 279 vs 216 / 39451.6%54.8%144 / 279 vs 216 / 394Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacLopata 2.20/Svitac 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 10:45V. Lopata378121161M. Svitac4511149113
LJul 20 · 10:15V. Lopata3612115532M. Svitac501071111113
WApr 1 · 12:39V. Lopata4213711113M. Svitac361111591
LApr 1 · 11:00V. Lopata3211351122M. Svitac44611115113
LMar 23 · 10:45V. Lopata36961291M. Svitac43111110113
LMar 4 · 11:45V. Lopata4212515462M. Svitac5610111311113
LFeb 11 · 11:00V. Lopata26641151M. Svitac4211119113
WFeb 9 · 10:15V. Lopata48911611113M. Svitac3511211382
WFeb 5 · 13:58V. Lopata537111311113M. Svitac4611515782
LFeb 5 · 13:00V. Lopata28641171M. Svitac4011117113
V. Lopata10
WSep 23 · 11:45L. Smazik1.44811321V. Lopata2.6311711113LSep 23 · 10:45M. Svitac1.6111149113V. Lopata2.208121161WSep 23 · 09:15T. Hybl1.671271591V. Lopata2.10101117113LSep 21 · 16:48V. Lopata1.5341161172P. Hala2.38117119113WSep 21 · 15:45P. Hala2.20119761V. Lopata1.6191111113WSep 21 · 14:45O. Horak1.671411981V. Lopata2.1016511113WSep 21 · 13:15R. Merkl2.2512119532V. Lopata1.571011111113WSep 19 · 16:24V. Lopata1.831211133L. Stoces1.83107110LSep 19 · 15:45J. Juppa1.803131111113V. Lopata1.9111158772LSep 19 · 14:45L. Stoces2.3811115143V. Lopata1.532811121
M. Svitac10
WSep 23 · 11:15T. Hybl2.2011101011102M. Svitac1.61712127123WSep 23 · 10:45M. Svitac1.6111149113V. Lopata2.208121161WSep 23 · 09:45M. Svitac1.91131112113L. Smazik1.801551051WSep 21 · 12:58M. Svitac1.5711811113T. Hrstka2.25711951LSep 21 · 12:00T. Hrstka2.6311911113M. Svitac1.44911551WSep 21 · 11:00M. Hajek1.57111311632M. Svitac2.251311611113WSep 21 · 09:30Z. Kuksa2.637760M. Svitac1.441111113LSep 19 · 21:04M. Svitac1.67911110L. Kolman2.101113133WSep 19 · 20:00L. Kolman2.20710111242M. Svitac1.611112410113LSep 19 · 19:00T. Hucko2.00111011113M. Svitac1.73512951
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