TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matej Svitac vs Vladimir Lopata 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Matej Svitac
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181412911116––
Vladimir Lopata
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:37 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 82 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Matej Svitac at 58.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 17–11 Vladimir Lopata Vladimir Lopata has won 11 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:37What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Svitac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-11 in 28
Svitac
Correct
gap of 6 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svitac 1617 vs Lopata 1583
Svitac
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svitac 80% vs Lopata 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svitac 50% vs Lopata 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svitac +2 · Lopata +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lopata form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.61 / Lopata 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Svitac)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13179920
Svitac1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 65 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 49 of 64
Lopata2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 10 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvitac7wins
AwayLopata3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSvitac leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac66.7%4 of 6
AwayLopata25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac6Lopata4n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S2Svitac6Lopata4n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S3Svitac4Lopata6n = 10Lopata took 6 of 10
S4Svitac6Lopata4n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S5Svitac4Lopata2n = 6Svitac took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvitacLopataS − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.138.9+5.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 392 vs 143 / 27754.6%51.6%214 / 392 vs 143 / 277Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSvitac 1.61/Lopata 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 20 · 10:15M. Svitac501071111113V. Lopata3612115532
LApr 1 · 12:39M. Svitac361111591V. Lopata4213711113
WApr 1 · 11:00M. Svitac44611115113V. Lopata3211351122
WMar 23 · 10:45M. Svitac43111110113V. Lopata36961291
WMar 4 · 11:45M. Svitac5610111311113V. Lopata4212515462
WFeb 11 · 11:00M. Svitac4211119113V. Lopata26641151
LFeb 9 · 10:15M. Svitac3511211382V. Lopata48911611113
LFeb 5 · 13:58M. Svitac4611515782V. Lopata537111311113
WFeb 5 · 13:00M. Svitac4011117113V. Lopata28641171
WJan 27 · 12:45M. Svitac49119611123V. Lopata46811116102
M. Svitac10
WSep 23 · 11:15T. Hybl2.2011101011102M. Svitac1.61712127123WSep 23 · 09:45M. Svitac1.91131112113L. Smazik1.801551051WSep 21 · 12:58M. Svitac1.5711811113T. Hrstka2.25711951LSep 21 · 12:00T. Hrstka2.6311911113M. Svitac1.44911551WSep 21 · 11:00M. Hajek1.57111311632M. Svitac2.251311611113WSep 21 · 09:30Z. Kuksa2.637760M. Svitac1.441111113LSep 19 · 21:04M. Svitac1.67911110L. Kolman2.101113133WSep 19 · 20:00L. Kolman2.20710111242M. Svitac1.611112410113LSep 19 · 19:00T. Hucko2.00111011113M. Svitac1.73512951LSep 19 · 17:30A. Pavlik2.3871111113M. Svitac1.53116891
V. Lopata10
WSep 23 · 09:15T. Hybl1.671271591V. Lopata2.10101117113LSep 21 · 16:48V. Lopata1.5341161172P. Hala2.38117119113WSep 21 · 15:45P. Hala2.20119761V. Lopata1.6191111113WSep 21 · 14:45O. Horak1.671411981V. Lopata2.1016511113WSep 21 · 13:15R. Merkl2.2512119532V. Lopata1.571011111113WSep 19 · 16:24V. Lopata1.831211133L. Stoces1.83107110LSep 19 · 15:45J. Juppa1.803131111113V. Lopata1.9111158772LSep 19 · 14:45L. Stoces2.3811115143V. Lopata1.532811121LSep 19 · 13:15V. Herrmann2.00118511103V. Lopata1.7381111892WSep 17 · 16:54P. Hala2.00118791V. Lopata1.7351111113
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