TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ludek Madle vs Milan Smesny 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Ludek Madle
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11913111311––––
Milan Smesny
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingLudek Madle above · Milan Smesny below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 68 set 3, 13-11
68 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Madle 7–2 Milan Smesny Milan Smesny has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Madle beat Smesny 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Madle)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madle form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadle 1.36 / Smesny 3.00
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Madle)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13182610
Madle1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 60 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it71% 46 of 65
Smesny3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 18 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMadle7wins
AwaySmesny2wins
2 of 9 to a deciderMadle leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadle85.7%6 of 7
AwaySmesnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madle7Smesny2n = 9Madle took 7 of 9
S2Madle7Smesny2n = 9Madle took 7 of 9
S3Madle4Smesny5n = 9Smesny took 5 of 9
S4Madle5Smesny2n = 7Madle took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricMadleSmesnyM − SBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match40.832.8+8.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadleSmesnyBasisWin rate · lifetime256 / 544 vs 190 / 36447.1%52.2%256 / 544 vs 190 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MadleMadle 1.36/Smesny 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 23 · 08:30L. Madle4211119113M. Smesny27551161
WMay 8 · 06:30L. Madle4413911113M. Smesny321111731
LOct 15 · 02:30L. Madle4271210131M. Smesny48111012153
WOct 13 · 09:00L. Madle341112113M. Smesny1821060
WOct 13 · 08:30L. Madle48871111113M. Smesny4211114792
WJun 19 · 11:30L. Madle44111110123M. Smesny323712101
LApr 29 · 12:30L. Madle3711116812M. Smesny46761111113
WApr 28 · 06:30L. Madle351113113M. Smesny2291120
WMar 6 · 08:00L. Madle4111118113M. Smesny28651161
L. Madle10
WSep 23 · 08:30M. Smesny2.63551161L. Madle1.4411119113LSep 23 · 07:30L. Madle1.83111191082L. Forman1.83591112113LSep 23 · 06:30T. Kucera1.73911311113L. Madle2.0011611842LSep 21 · 08:58L. Madle1.5377111172J. Cernik2.38111176113WSep 21 · 08:30L. Madle1.611111113J. Cernik2.206490LSep 21 · 07:00L. Madle2.20911451M. Vaclavik1.6111411113LSep 21 · 06:00J. Srba2.2512139113L. Madle1.5710111171WSep 17 · 12:58L. Madle2.0012121110113Z. Kasinski1.731010131272WSep 17 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.57111441L. Madle2.2511811113LSep 17 · 11:30L. Madle2.3881191182M. Varcl1.53119117113
M. Smesny10
LSep 23 · 08:30M. Smesny2.63551161L. Madle1.4411119113WSep 23 · 07:00M. Smesny2.38111110113T. Kucera1.53891281LSep 23 · 06:00L. Forman2.00111243113M. Smesny1.73910111172WSep 21 · 13:30M. Smesny1.3511112113L. Novotny2.95871191LSep 21 · 12:30M. Smesny1.838711131J. Cernik1.8311114153WSep 21 · 11:00M. Smesny2.38614118113M. Vaclavik1.53111281172WSep 21 · 10:00L. Novotny2.638920M. Smesny1.441111113LSep 10 · 13:30M. Smesny1.8011551162J. Cernik1.90611118113WSep 10 · 12:30M. Smesny1.531111113L. Novotny2.388870WSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182
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