TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Smesny vs Ludek Madle 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511511119611––
Ludek Madle
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeLudek Madle to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Ludek Madle below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Ludek Madle at 55.6%
69 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 2–6 Ludek Madle Milan Smesny has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:24What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Madle
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Madle
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1235 vs Madle 1101
Smesny
Wrong
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 60% vs Madle 20%
Smesny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 70% vs Madle 30%
Smesny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny +1 · Madle -3
Madle
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Madle) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madle form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 2.63 / Madle 1.44
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Madle)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13177491
Smesny2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 18 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Madle1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 60 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it71% 46 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSmesny2wins
AwayMadle6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderMadle leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMadle83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny2Madle6n = 8Madle took 6 of 8
S2Smesny2Madle6n = 8Madle took 6 of 8
S3Smesny4Madle4n = 8split evenly
S4Smesny2Madle4n = 6Madle took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricSmesnyMadleS − MBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match33.540.6−7.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyMadleBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 363 vs 255 / 54352.3%47%190 / 363 vs 255 / 543Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MadleSmesny 2.63/Madle 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LMay 8 · 06:30M. Smesny321111731L. Madle4413911113
WOct 15 · 02:30M. Smesny48111012153L. Madle4271210131
LOct 13 · 09:00M. Smesny1821060L. Madle341112113
LOct 13 · 08:30M. Smesny4211114792L. Madle48871111113
LJun 19 · 11:30M. Smesny323712101L. Madle44111110123
WApr 29 · 12:30M. Smesny46761111113L. Madle3711116812
LApr 28 · 06:30M. Smesny2291120L. Madle351113113
LMar 6 · 08:00M. Smesny28651161L. Madle4111118113
M. Smesny10
LSep 23 · 08:58L. Madle1.361113133M. Smesny3.00911110WSep 23 · 07:00M. Smesny2.38111110113T. Kucera1.53891281LSep 23 · 06:00L. Forman2.00111243113M. Smesny1.73910111172WSep 21 · 13:30M. Smesny1.3511112113L. Novotny2.95871191LSep 21 · 12:30M. Smesny1.838711131J. Cernik1.8311114153WSep 21 · 11:00M. Smesny2.38614118113M. Vaclavik1.53111281172WSep 21 · 10:00L. Novotny2.638920M. Smesny1.441111113LSep 10 · 13:30M. Smesny1.8011551162J. Cernik1.90611118113WSep 10 · 12:30M. Smesny1.531111113L. Novotny2.388870WSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182
L. Madle10
WSep 23 · 08:58L. Madle1.361113133M. Smesny3.00911110LSep 23 · 07:30L. Madle1.83111191082L. Forman1.83591112113LSep 23 · 06:30T. Kucera1.73911311113L. Madle2.0011611842LSep 21 · 08:58L. Madle1.5377111172J. Cernik2.38111176113WSep 21 · 08:30L. Madle1.611111113J. Cernik2.206490LSep 21 · 07:00L. Madle2.20911451M. Vaclavik1.6111411113LSep 21 · 06:00J. Srba2.2512139113L. Madle1.5710111171WSep 17 · 12:58L. Madle2.0012121110113Z. Kasinski1.731010131272WSep 17 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.57111441L. Madle2.2511811113LSep 17 · 11:30L. Madle2.3881191182M. Varcl1.53119117113
Upcoming Matches
M. Smesny
Nothing scheduled
L. Madle
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