TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911211––––
Milan Smesny
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:53 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Milan Smesny below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 52 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Milan Smesny at 66.3%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 5–15 Milan Smesny Ladislav Novotny has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Smesny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-15 in 20
Smesny
Correct
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1150 vs Smesny 1222
Smesny
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 40% vs Smesny 80%
Smesny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 50% vs Smesny 70%
Smesny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +2 · Smesny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Smesny) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smesny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 2.63 / Smesny 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Smesny)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13164164
Novotny2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 36 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back33% 13 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Smesny1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 10) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 46 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it77% 27 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny3wins
AwaySmesny7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSmesny leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny50%3 of 6
AwaySmesny100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny6Smesny4n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S2Novotny4Smesny6n = 10Smesny took 6 of 10
S3Novotny6Smesny4n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S4Novotny2Smesny6n = 8Smesny took 6 of 8
S5Novotny1Smesny4n = 5Smesny took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnySmesnyN − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.240.1+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnySmesnyBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 383 vs 197 / 37449.6%52.7%190 / 383 vs 197 / 374Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmesnyNovotny 2.63/Smesny 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Smesny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 12:30L. Novotny238870M. Smesny331111113
LSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny4176111162M. Smesny45111175113
LSep 6 · 09:00L. Novotny391181191M. Smesny4491113113
LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny50111111982M. Smesny53913911113
WSep 3 · 07:30L. Novotny341211113M. Smesny2110560
LSep 1 · 09:29L. Novotny377101191M. Smesny4011126113
LSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny4511119772M. Smesny44561111113
LAug 25 · 11:30L. Novotny50911111092M. Smesny46115712113
WJun 23 · 07:00L. Novotny42114115113M. Smesny4371151192
WMay 26 · 11:00L. Novotny4111118113M. Smesny32761181
L. Novotny10
WSep 19 · 08:59L. Novotny1.5781111113J. Hyrsl2.25118451WSep 19 · 08:30J. Hyrsl2.00114771L. Novotny1.7381111113LSep 19 · 07:30L. Novotny3.509980M. Syroha1.281111113LSep 19 · 06:30M. Vrabec2.6391115113L. Novotny1.441171371LSep 18 · 13:30L. Novotny1.85118971J. Cernik1.8581111113WSep 18 · 12:30J. Strnad2.206780L. Novotny1.611111113WSep 18 · 11:30L. Novotny2.1081111113J. Cernik1.67119571LSep 18 · 10:30M. Marjan2.0212117113L. Novotny1.701071181WSep 18 · 09:28L. Novotny2.3811133123M. Vaclavik1.5351111101LSep 18 · 08:30L. Novotny2.1061381172J. Cernik1.671111115113
M. Smesny10
LSep 10 · 13:30M. Smesny1.8011551162J. Cernik1.90611118113WSep 10 · 12:30M. Smesny1.531111113L. Novotny2.388870WSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:00J. Strnad3.006880M. Smesny1.361111113WSep 8 · 09:30M. Vaclavik1.4045111192M. Smesny2.75111174113WSep 8 · 08:30A. Hejduk1.57741171M. Smesny2.2511117113LSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny2.385760M. Vaclavik1.531111113WSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113
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