TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111412118811117
Miroslav Vaclavik
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:12 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Miroslav Vaclavik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 99 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 57.3%
99 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 4–3 Miroslav Vaclavik Miroslav Vaclavik has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:12What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vaclavik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1233 vs Vaclavik 1267
Vaclavik
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 80% vs Vaclavik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 80% vs Vaclavik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny +1 · Vaclavik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Vaclavik) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclavik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 2.38 / Vaclavik 1.53
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Vaclavik)-0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13165611
Smesny2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog32% won 17 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Vaclavik1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 43 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it81% 35 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSmesny4wins
AwayVaclavik3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderSmesny leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesny100%3 of 3
AwayVaclavik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny3Vaclavik4n = 7Vaclavik took 4 of 7
S2Smesny5Vaclavik2n = 7Smesny took 5 of 7
S3Smesny3Vaclavik4n = 7Vaclavik took 4 of 7
S4Smesny1Vaclavik2n = 3Vaclavik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricSmesnyVaclavikS − VBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match32.132.4−0.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyVaclavikBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 358 vs 110 / 19952.2%55.3%187 / 358 vs 110 / 199Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikSmesny 2.38/Vaclavik 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.4%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 8 · 09:30M. Smesny44111174113M. Vaclavik4045111192
LSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny185760M. Vaclavik331111113
WJul 19 · 10:00M. Smesny371311133M. Vaclavik31119110
LJun 16 · 11:30M. Smesny347114121M. Vaclavik4311711143
LMay 20 · 24:00M. Smesny178360M. Vaclavik331111113
WJan 3 · 16:00M. Smesny331111113M. Vaclavik228590
WOct 12 · 12:30M. Smesny4291111113M. Vaclavik25114551
M. Smesny10
WSep 21 · 10:00L. Novotny2.638920M. Smesny1.441111113LSep 10 · 13:30M. Smesny1.8011551162J. Cernik1.90611118113WSep 10 · 12:30M. Smesny1.531111113L. Novotny2.388870WSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:00J. Strnad3.006880M. Smesny1.361111113WSep 8 · 09:30M. Vaclavik1.4045111192M. Smesny2.75111174113WSep 8 · 08:30A. Hejduk1.57741171M. Smesny2.2511117113LSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny2.385760M. Vaclavik1.531111113WSep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny2.2576111162M. Smesny1.57111175113WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191
M. Vaclavik10
LSep 21 · 12:00L. Novotny2.2511119113M. Vaclavik1.57771181WSep 21 · 10:30M. Vaclavik1.301112113J. Cernik3.4061010WSep 21 · 09:28J. Srba1.30561141M. Vaclavik3.4011114113LSep 21 · 08:00J. Srba1.531311113M. Vaclavik2.3811900WSep 21 · 07:00L. Madle2.20911451M. Vaclavik1.6111411113WSep 21 · 06:30M. Vaclavik1.401111113J. Cernik2.754380LSep 18 · 09:28L. Novotny2.3811133123M. Vaclavik1.5351111101WSep 18 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.67118811113M. Marjan2.1081111592LSep 8 · 09:30M. Vaclavik1.4045111192M. Smesny2.75111174113WSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny2.385760M. Vaclavik1.531111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.