TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117117911118––
Miroslav Vaclavik
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:05 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Miroslav Vaclavik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 57.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 4–1 Miroslav Vaclavik Miroslav Vaclavik has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:05What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vaclavik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Novotny
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1152 vs Vaclavik 1255
Vaclavik
Wrong
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Vaclavik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 50% vs Vaclavik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +1 · Vaclavik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vaclavik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 2.25 / Vaclavik 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Vaclavik)+2.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13165550
Novotny2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 36 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back33% 13 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Vaclavik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 43 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it81% 35 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeNovotny4wins
AwayVaclavik1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderNovotny leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny100%3 of 3
AwayVaclavikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny3Vaclavik2n = 5Novotny took 3 of 5
S2Novotny5Vaclavik0n = 5Novotny took 5 of 5
S3Novotny1Vaclavik4n = 5Vaclavik took 4 of 5
S4Novotny3Vaclavik2n = 5Novotny took 3 of 5
S5Novotny2Vaclavik1n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricNovotnyVaclavikN − VBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match44.841.4+3.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyVaclavikBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 382 vs 110 / 20049.7%55%190 / 382 vs 110 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikNovotny 2.25/Vaclavik 1.57
Miss
What we said
61.1%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 18 · 09:28L. Novotny3911133123M. Vaclavik3751111101
WSep 18 · 06:00L. Novotny461011311113M. Vaclavik4212611762
LSep 8 · 08:00L. Novotny50911111272M. Vaclavik53118914113
WDec 26 · 10:00L. Novotny4011117113M. Vaclavik31831191
WDec 26 · 09:00L. Novotny49111188113M. Vaclavik4496111172
L. Novotny10
WSep 21 · 11:30J. Cernik1.736970L. Novotny2.001111113LSep 21 · 10:00L. Novotny2.638920M. Smesny1.441111113WSep 19 · 08:59L. Novotny1.5781111113J. Hyrsl2.25118451WSep 19 · 08:30J. Hyrsl2.00114771L. Novotny1.7381111113LSep 19 · 07:30L. Novotny3.509980M. Syroha1.281111113LSep 19 · 06:30M. Vrabec2.6391115113L. Novotny1.441171371LSep 18 · 13:30L. Novotny1.85118971J. Cernik1.8581111113WSep 18 · 12:30J. Strnad2.206780L. Novotny1.611111113WSep 18 · 11:30L. Novotny2.1081111113J. Cernik1.67119571LSep 18 · 10:30M. Marjan2.0212117113L. Novotny1.701071181
M. Vaclavik10
LSep 21 · 13:01M. Vaclavik1.836790J. Cernik1.831111113LSep 21 · 11:00M. Smesny2.38614118113M. Vaclavik1.53111281172WSep 21 · 10:30M. Vaclavik1.301112113J. Cernik3.4061010WSep 21 · 09:28J. Srba1.30561141M. Vaclavik3.4011114113LSep 21 · 08:00J. Srba1.531311113M. Vaclavik2.3811900WSep 21 · 07:00L. Madle2.20911451M. Vaclavik1.6111411113WSep 21 · 06:30M. Vaclavik1.401111113J. Cernik2.754380LSep 18 · 09:28L. Novotny2.3811133123M. Vaclavik1.5351111101WSep 18 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.67118811113M. Marjan2.1081111592WSep 18 · 07:30J. Cernik3.001189141M. Vaclavik1.3681111163
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