TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viacheslav Simchuk vs Valentyn Kurliuk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Viacheslav Simchuk
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911119115116––
Valentyn Kurliuk
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:59 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Simchuk to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Simchuk above · Valentyn Kurliuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Viacheslav Simchuk at 60.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Simchuk 7–6 Valentyn Kurliuk Valentyn Kurliuk has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Simchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simchuk 1454 vs Kurliuk 1308
Simchuk
Correct
both rated, 145 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simchuk 100% vs Kurliuk 60%
Simchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simchuk 90% vs Kurliuk 50%
Simchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simchuk +9 · Kurliuk +2
Simchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Simchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurliuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimchuk 1.61 / Kurliuk 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Simchuk)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13180019
Simchuk1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 102 of 140
Up 2–0, closes it98% 52 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it94% 74 of 79
Kurliuk2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog16% won 7 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimchuk7wins
AwayKurliuk3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSimchuk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimchuk85.7%6 of 7
AwayKurliuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simchuk7Kurliuk3n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S2Simchuk3Kurliuk7n = 10Kurliuk took 7 of 10
S3Simchuk8Kurliuk2n = 10Simchuk took 8 of 10
S4Simchuk1Kurliuk6n = 7Kurliuk took 6 of 7
S5Simchuk4Kurliuk0n = 4Simchuk took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimchukKurliukS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.539.3+2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimchukKurliukBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 456 vs 147 / 28761.2%51.2%279 / 456 vs 147 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimchukSimchuk 1.61/Kurliuk 2.20
Hit
What we said
58.5%
Simchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Simchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 06:30V. Simchuk4011711113V. Kurliuk33511891
WAug 12 · 09:30V. Simchuk551161113143V. Kurliuk50511715122
WAug 5 · 09:00V. Simchuk551213117123V. Kurliuk511015511102
LJul 30 · 08:00V. Simchuk34771191V. Kurliuk4011117113
LJul 19 · 08:00V. Simchuk31115691V. Kurliuk4181111113
WJul 17 · 12:00V. Simchuk581312127143V. Kurliuk5815101011122
WJun 30 · 05:00V. Simchuk51119119113V. Kurliuk4561181192
WJun 19 · 09:30V. Simchuk331111113V. Kurliuk216780
WMay 12 · 10:34V. Simchuk341112113V. Kurliuk2031070
LMay 12 · 06:30V. Simchuk2451090V. Kurliuk341112113
V. Simchuk10
WSep 23 · 06:00V. Simchuk2.3891111113M. Pohorilyi1.53118881WSep 17 · 10:28V. Simchuk1.5711911113S. Honcharenko2.25411491WSep 17 · 08:30S. Honcharenko2.1011860V. Simchuk1.671311113WSep 17 · 07:30V. Simchuk1.401111113M. Zavoloka2.756840WSep 17 · 06:30V. Kurliuk2.10511891V. Simchuk1.6711711113WSep 17 · 05:30V. Simchuk1.361311113V. Matviichuk3.0011570WSep 16 · 10:29V. Simchuk1.441111113Y. Zvolynskyi2.637690WSep 16 · 09:00V. Simchuk1.7321111113S. Honcharenko2.00116681WSep 16 · 08:00O. Badanin4.33541151V. Simchuk1.2011116113LSep 16 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi3.2511611113V. Simchuk1.33911581
V. Kurliuk10
WSep 23 · 05:30E. Bakin1.801110591V. Kurliuk1.9191211113WSep 17 · 09:59M. Zavoloka2.10391181V. Kurliuk1.6711117113LSep 17 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.201311113V. Kurliuk1.6111480WSep 17 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.3011117113V. Matviichuk3.40741161LSep 17 · 06:30V. Kurliuk2.10511891V. Simchuk1.6711711113WSep 17 · 05:00V. Kurliuk2.251111113M. Zavoloka1.575870LSep 9 · 10:10V. Kurliuk3.50811612112I. Sorochan1.251131110133WSep 9 · 09:00S. Honcharenko1.91511481V. Kurliuk1.8011611113LSep 9 · 07:30I. Sorochan1.251111113V. Kurliuk3.759590LSep 9 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi2.6312711113V. Kurliuk1.441011931
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