TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142015
Played Sep 17Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113811611––––
Viacheslav Simchuk
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:22 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Simchuk to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Viacheslav Simchuk below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 60 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Viacheslav Simchuk at 56.2%
60 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 38–24 Viacheslav Simchuk Viacheslav Simchuk has won 24 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:22What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Simchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-24 in 62
Honcharenko
Wrong
gap of 14 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1275 vs Simchuk 1384
Simchuk
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 60% vs Simchuk 100%
Simchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 40% vs Simchuk 70%
Simchuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko +1 · Simchuk +5
Simchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Simchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simchuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 2.10 / Simchuk 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Simchuk)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142015
Honcharenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 71 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Simchuk1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 99 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it92% 71 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko3wins
AwaySimchuk7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSimchuk leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko75%3 of 4
AwaySimchuk100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko4Simchuk6n = 10Simchuk took 6 of 10
S2Honcharenko3Simchuk7n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S3Honcharenko5Simchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Honcharenko3Simchuk4n = 7Simchuk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoSimchukH − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.037.1−3.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoSimchukBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 842 vs 281 / 46451.8%60.6%436 / 842 vs 281 / 464Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimchukHoncharenko 2.10/Simchuk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.2%
Simchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Simchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 08:30S. Honcharenko2511860V. Simchuk351311113
LSep 16 · 09:00S. Honcharenko31116681V. Simchuk3521111113
WSep 11 · 07:30S. Honcharenko3611311113V. Simchuk30811561
LAug 23 · 17:30S. Honcharenko247980V. Simchuk331111113
LAug 23 · 12:00S. Honcharenko3861210101V. Simchuk45111012123
WAug 18 · 05:30S. Honcharenko4011511133V. Simchuk365119111
WAug 5 · 05:30S. Honcharenko381116113V. Simchuk2451450
LJul 30 · 10:11S. Honcharenko4249111172V. Simchuk49111188113
LJul 30 · 09:00S. Honcharenko32611961V. Simchuk4111811113
LJul 7 · 07:30S. Honcharenko34971261V. Simchuk43111110113
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 17 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.4411156123V. Matviichuk2.6381311101LSep 17 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.837990M. Zavoloka1.831111113WSep 16 · 09:59S. Honcharenko2.2011811123M. Zavoloka1.619113101LSep 16 · 09:00V. Simchuk1.7321111113S. Honcharenko2.00116681WSep 16 · 07:30M. Zavoloka1.36610121162S. Honcharenko3.001112104113LSep 16 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.4011712113S. Honcharenko2.759111091WSep 16 · 05:00O. Badanin1.5061111952S. Honcharenko2.50114511113LSep 15 · 09:58S. Honcharenko2.3852110M. Zavoloka1.531111133LSep 15 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.501111113S. Honcharenko2.503780LSep 15 · 07:30S. Honcharenko3.4071080P. Shulhachyk1.301112113
V. Simchuk10
WSep 17 · 07:30V. Simchuk1.401111113M. Zavoloka2.756840WSep 17 · 06:30V. Kurliuk2.10511891V. Simchuk1.6711711113WSep 17 · 05:30V. Simchuk1.361311113V. Matviichuk3.0011570WSep 16 · 10:29V. Simchuk1.441111113Y. Zvolynskyi2.637690WSep 16 · 09:00V. Simchuk1.7321111113S. Honcharenko2.00116681WSep 16 · 08:00O. Badanin4.33541151V. Simchuk1.2011116113LSep 16 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi3.2511611113V. Simchuk1.33911581LSep 16 · 05:30M. Zavoloka3.00111196123V. Simchuk1.36861111102WSep 11 · 08:30N. Priadko2.2551181442V. Simchuk1.57119111263LSep 11 · 07:30V. Simchuk1.67811561S. Honcharenko2.1011311113
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