TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viacheslav Simchuk vs Mykola Pohorilyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Viacheslav Simchuk
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911118118118––
Mykola Pohorilyi
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeMykola Pohorilyi to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingViacheslav Simchuk above · Mykola Pohorilyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Mykola Pohorilyi at 64.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Simchuk 17–23 Mykola Pohorilyi Viacheslav Simchuk has won 17 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pohorilyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-23 in 40
Pohorilyi
Wrong
gap of 6 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simchuk 1461 vs Pohorilyi 1542
Pohorilyi
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simchuk 100% vs Pohorilyi 80%
Simchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simchuk 80% vs Pohorilyi 90%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Simchuk +8 · Pohorilyi +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Pohorilyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohorilyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimchuk 2.38 / Pohorilyi 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Pohorilyi)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13180156
Simchuk2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 17)
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog32% won 17 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Pohorilyi1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 133 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it88% 105 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimchuk3wins
AwayPohorilyi7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPohorilyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimchukn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPohorilyi75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simchuk2Pohorilyi8n = 10Pohorilyi took 8 of 10
S2Simchuk4Pohorilyi6n = 10Pohorilyi took 6 of 10
S3Simchuk7Pohorilyi3n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S4Simchuk4Pohorilyi6n = 10Pohorilyi took 6 of 10
S5Simchuk1Pohorilyi2n = 3Pohorilyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimchukPohorilyiS − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.140.4−2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimchukPohorilyiBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 457 vs 365 / 62661.3%58.3%280 / 457 vs 365 / 626Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PohorilyiSimchuk 2.38/Pohorilyi 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Pohorilyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Simchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 06:00V. Simchuk4291111113M. Pohorilyi35118881
LSep 11 · 06:30V. Simchuk511011101192M. Pohorilyi46129122113
LSep 10 · 17:33V. Simchuk339111031M. Pohorilyi4111712113
LSep 10 · 13:00V. Simchuk4010911101M. Pohorilyi3812113123
LSep 4 · 13:00V. Simchuk43111310722M. Pohorilyi538111211113
WAug 18 · 08:00V. Simchuk44651111113M. Pohorilyi4011115582
LAug 17 · 17:40V. Simchuk30771151M. Pohorilyi4011117113
WAug 17 · 15:30V. Simchuk4211911113M. Pohorilyi32911481
LAug 12 · 10:38V. Simchuk27761131M. Pohorilyi4011117113
LAug 12 · 06:00V. Simchuk29651171M. Pohorilyi3911116113
V. Simchuk10
WSep 23 · 07:00V. Simchuk1.6191111113V. Kurliuk2.20119561WSep 17 · 10:28V. Simchuk1.5711911113S. Honcharenko2.25411491WSep 17 · 08:30S. Honcharenko2.1011860V. Simchuk1.671311113WSep 17 · 07:30V. Simchuk1.401111113M. Zavoloka2.756840WSep 17 · 06:30V. Kurliuk2.10511891V. Simchuk1.6711711113WSep 17 · 05:30V. Simchuk1.361311113V. Matviichuk3.0011570WSep 16 · 10:29V. Simchuk1.441111113Y. Zvolynskyi2.637690WSep 16 · 09:00V. Simchuk1.7321111113S. Honcharenko2.00116681WSep 16 · 08:00O. Badanin4.33541151V. Simchuk1.2011116113LSep 16 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi3.2511611113V. Simchuk1.33911581
M. Pohorilyi10
WSep 23 · 05:00M. Zavoloka2.637460M. Pohorilyi1.441111113WSep 18 · 10:33N. Priadko1.911131071M. Pohorilyi1.8081112113WSep 18 · 09:30I. Sorochan3.2511128101M. Pohorilyi1.3361411123WSep 18 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi1.201111113S. Honcharenko4.339660LSep 18 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi1.36711811102N. Priadko3.00118118123WSep 18 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi1.611112113P. Shulhachyk2.2051060WSep 17 · 17:44P. Shulhachyk1.911111221M. Pohorilyi1.8071311113WSep 17 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40117411123I. Dubinin2.75411118102WSep 17 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi1.401111113N. Priadko2.758980WSep 17 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi1.441111133R. Hryhoriev2.6349110
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