TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13145704
Played Sep 17Finished
Viacheslav Simchuk
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114911114119––
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingViacheslav Simchuk above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 70 set 4, 11-9
70 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Simchuk 24–38 Serhii Honcharenko Viacheslav Simchuk has won 24 of their 62 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Simchuk beat Honcharenko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Simchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimchuk 1.57 / Honcharenko 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Simchuk)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13145704
Simchuk1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 99 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it92% 71 of 77
Honcharenko2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 71 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimchuk7wins
AwayHoncharenko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSimchuk leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimchuk100%6 of 6
AwayHoncharenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simchuk6Honcharenko4n = 10Simchuk took 6 of 10
S2Simchuk7Honcharenko3n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S3Simchuk5Honcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Simchuk4Honcharenko3n = 7Simchuk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimchukHoncharenkoS − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.134.0+3.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimchukHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 464 vs 437 / 84360.6%51.8%281 / 464 vs 437 / 843Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimchukSimchuk 1.57/Honcharenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Simchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Simchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 08:30V. Simchuk351311113S. Honcharenko2511860
WSep 16 · 09:00V. Simchuk3521111113S. Honcharenko31116681
LSep 11 · 07:30V. Simchuk30811561S. Honcharenko3611311113
WAug 23 · 17:30V. Simchuk331111113S. Honcharenko247980
WAug 23 · 12:00V. Simchuk45111012123S. Honcharenko3861210101
LAug 18 · 05:30V. Simchuk365119111S. Honcharenko4011511133
LAug 5 · 05:30V. Simchuk2451450S. Honcharenko381116113
WJul 30 · 10:11V. Simchuk49111188113S. Honcharenko4249111172
WJul 30 · 09:00V. Simchuk4111811113S. Honcharenko32611961
WJul 7 · 07:30V. Simchuk43111110113S. Honcharenko34971261
V. Simchuk10
WSep 17 · 08:30S. Honcharenko2.1011860V. Simchuk1.671311113WSep 17 · 07:30V. Simchuk1.401111113M. Zavoloka2.756840WSep 17 · 06:30V. Kurliuk2.10511891V. Simchuk1.6711711113WSep 17 · 05:30V. Simchuk1.361311113V. Matviichuk3.0011570WSep 16 · 10:29V. Simchuk1.441111113Y. Zvolynskyi2.637690WSep 16 · 09:00V. Simchuk1.7321111113S. Honcharenko2.00116681WSep 16 · 08:00O. Badanin4.33541151V. Simchuk1.2011116113LSep 16 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi3.2511611113V. Simchuk1.33911581LSep 16 · 05:30M. Zavoloka3.00111196123V. Simchuk1.36861111102WSep 11 · 08:30N. Priadko2.2551181442V. Simchuk1.57119111263
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 17 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.201311113V. Kurliuk1.6111480LSep 17 · 08:30S. Honcharenko2.1011860V. Simchuk1.671311113WSep 17 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.4411156123V. Matviichuk2.6381311101LSep 17 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.837990M. Zavoloka1.831111113WSep 16 · 09:59S. Honcharenko2.2011811123M. Zavoloka1.619113101LSep 16 · 09:00V. Simchuk1.7321111113S. Honcharenko2.00116681WSep 16 · 07:30M. Zavoloka1.36610121162S. Honcharenko3.001112104113LSep 16 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.4011712113S. Honcharenko2.759111091WSep 16 · 05:00O. Badanin1.5061111952S. Honcharenko2.50114511113LSep 15 · 09:58S. Honcharenko2.3852110M. Zavoloka1.531111133
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