TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Hel vs Orest Melnik 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Valerii Hel
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012711611––––
Orest Melnik
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Hel above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Valerii Hel at 62.7%
57 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Hel 11–6 Orest Melnik Orest Melnik has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Hel beat Melnik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Hel
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hel 1263 vs Melnik 1244
Hel
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hel 40% vs Melnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hel 50% vs Melnik 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hel -1 · Melnik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Hel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHel 1.44 / Melnik 2.63
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Hel)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13179659
Hel1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 57 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it73% 41 of 56
Melnik2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 39 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHel7wins
AwayMelnik3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHel leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHel77.8%7 of 9
AwayMelnikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hel9Melnik1n = 10Hel took 9 of 10
S2Hel4Melnik6n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S3Hel6Melnik4n = 10Hel took 6 of 10
S4Hel4Melnik4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHelMelnikH − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.235.6+3.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHelMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 235 vs 169 / 36655.3%46.2%130 / 235 vs 169 / 366Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HelHel 1.44/Melnik 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.7%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 16:25V. Hel331111113O. Melnik199640
LSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel351195101O. Melnik4281111123
WSep 16 · 05:25V. Hel331111113O. Melnik187380
WSep 15 · 15:55V. Hel3811411123O. Melnik325116101
WAug 5 · 05:25V. Hel49117146113O. Melnik42611121122
WAug 4 · 13:55V. Hel4411157113O. Melnik407131191
LJul 29 · 05:25V. Hel351171161O. Melnik4381113113
WJul 21 · 13:55V. Hel4811917113O. Melnik438111591
LJul 15 · 07:25V. Hel35712971O. Melnik43111011113
WJul 9 · 07:55V. Hel4211911113O. Melnik34811961
V. Hel10
LSep 22 · 17:55V. Hel1.91111189112S. Kryvoshyi1.80571111133WSep 22 · 16:25V. Hel1.571111113O. Melnik2.259640WSep 22 · 14:55V. Hel2.50811115113K. Tkachenko1.5011691162LSep 22 · 13:25V. Hel2.388111161D. Kozoriz1.5311138113LSep 22 · 11:55V. Hel1.9171161372D. Kasian1.801181111113WSep 21 · 10:35V. Salivonchyk2.757101191V. Hel1.4011124113LSep 21 · 09:35V. Hel1.28111111972O. Maslovskyi3.50139611113LSep 21 · 08:35V. Hel1.8381111622S. Kryvoshyi1.83114711113WSep 21 · 07:05V. Hel1.531111113M. Vivatenko2.388770WSep 17 · 18:25V. Hel1.8311119113O. Maksymkiv1.83891161
O. Melnik10
LSep 23 · 06:25O. Melnik1.7351350D. Kozoriz2.001115113LSep 22 · 18:25O. Melnik2.006890D. Kasian1.731111113LSep 22 · 16:25V. Hel1.571111113O. Melnik2.259640WSep 22 · 15:25O. Melnik1.801211133D. Kozoriz1.91109110WSep 22 · 14:25S. Kryvoshyi1.3012911942O. Melnik3.401011611113LSep 22 · 12:55O. Melnik6.506690K. Tkachenko1.101111113WSep 17 · 18:55O. Melnik1.3011711113I. Fokin3.40911961LSep 17 · 16:55V. Kheresko2.00101411113O. Melnik1.731212421WSep 17 · 14:55M. Treschetka3.40117111272O. Melnik1.30711714113LSep 17 · 13:55O. Melnik1.30159110O. Maksymkiv3.401711133
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