TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Gesiarz vs Mateusz Baran 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
1.82
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1517611117311––
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.72
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:39 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
1517611117311––
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 2–4 Mateusz Baran Piotr Gesiarz has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:39What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (51%)
Baran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Baran
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1341 vs Baran 1322
Gesiarz
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 40% vs Baran 20%
Gesiarz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 40% vs Baran 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +1 · Baran -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 1.82 / Baran 1.72
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baran)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13171849
Gesiarz1.82
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 51 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Baran1.72
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 46 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it73% 27 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGesiarz2wins
AwayBaran4wins
5 of 6 to a deciderBaran leads 4–2, and 5 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz33.3%1 of 3
AwayBaran66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz3Baran3n = 6split evenly
S2Gesiarz3Baran3n = 6split evenly
S3Gesiarz6Baran0n = 6Gesiarz took 6 of 6
S4Gesiarz1Baran4n = 5Baran took 4 of 5
S5Gesiarz1Baran4n = 5Baran took 4 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away467%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricGesiarzBaranG − BBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match45.343.0+2.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 327 vs 84 / 16246.8%51.9%153 / 327 vs 84 / 162Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranGesiarz 1.82/Baran 1.72
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz49971111113M. Baran3911114852
LAug 31 · 15:30P. Gesiarz50111112972M. Baran527131011113
LAug 2 · 01:45P. Gesiarz49111111882M. Baran52139811113
WAug 1 · 16:15P. Gesiarz331111113M. Baran187560
LJul 18 · 21:20P. Gesiarz4391111752M. Baran46116711113
LJul 18 · 15:25P. Gesiarz48121011782M. Baran511012711113
P. Gesiarz10
WSep 22 · 18:20K. Delikatny1.832860P. Gesiarz1.721111113LSep 21 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.10951161A. Kubiak1.6511113113LSep 21 · 18:45J. Cyndera1.851211113P. Gesiarz1.8010780LSep 21 · 18:00M. Warzecha1.5581111113P. Gesiarz2.25113891WSep 21 · 17:10P. Gesiarz1.5012118113A. Staniczek2.351061181WSep 21 · 16:00P. Gesiarz1.361111113D. Maszczynski2.958750LSep 20 · 01:45P. Gesiarz4.33761191T. Kocik1.2011119113LSep 20 · 24:35P. Gesiarz1.5012880D. Maszczynski2.501411113WSep 19 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.731311113K. Malcher2.0011640LSep 19 · 22:10J. Oracz1.281111123P. Gesiarz3.5092100
M. Baran10
LSep 22 · 17:30M. Brunner1.90111166113M. Baran1.7596111162LSep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.83115591M. Karpiuk1.8371111113WSep 22 · 24:30M. Baran2.0011711113M. Lewczuk1.73911981LSep 21 · 23:30M. Baran2.7513770A. Zmijewski1.401511113LSep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38910100K. Kwiatkowski1.531112123LSep 21 · 21:00M. Baran2.38511681J. Zelezik1.5311811113WSep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.5091181272M. Baran2.501161110113LSep 21 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.7312311113M. Baran2.001011651LSep 21 · 18:10M. Baran1.677680M. Karpiuk2.101111113WSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690
Upcoming Matches
P. Gesiarz
M. Baran
Sep 22 · 19:55M. Baran2.40K. Kwiatkowski1.50—Sep 22 · 21:55M. Baran1.71M. Karpiuk2.00—Sep 22 · 22:40M. Baran—K. Delikatny——Sep 22 · 23:30M. Baran—J. Michalik——Sep 23 · 01:10M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 23 · 01:55M. Baran—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 23 · 03:55M. Baran—M. Karpiuk——Sep 23 · 04:40M. Baran—K. Delikatny——
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