TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159104
Played Sep 19Finished
Jacek Oracz
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191121210––––
Piotr Gesiarz
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:37 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Oracz above · Piotr Gesiarz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 55 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Jacek Oracz at 75.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Oracz 4–1 Piotr Gesiarz Piotr Gesiarz has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Gesiarz beat Oracz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:37What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Oracz
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1546 vs Gesiarz 1416
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Gesiarz 40%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 70% vs Gesiarz 50%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +1 · Gesiarz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.28 / Gesiarz 3.50
Signal prob.78% / 23%
Edge (Oracz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13159104
Oracz1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 308 of 429
Up 2–0, closes it98% 190 of 193
Up 1–0, closes it88% 249 of 283
Gesiarz3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 49 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeOracz4wins
AwayGesiarz1wins
Oracz leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz66.7%2 of 3
AwayGesiarzn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz3Gesiarz2n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S2Oracz3Gesiarz2n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S3Oracz4Gesiarz1n = 5Oracz took 4 of 5
S4Oracz3Gesiarz1n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricOraczGesiarzO − GBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match39.029.6+9.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime657 / 911 vs 149 / 31772.1%47%657 / 911 vs 149 / 317Avg sets wonper match2.51.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.28/Gesiarz 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 19 · 19:40J. Oracz38119991P. Gesiarz3851111113
WAug 29 · 22:10J. Oracz43111011113P. Gesiarz31612581
WAug 29 · 19:40J. Oracz351113113P. Gesiarz2591150
WMar 23 · 20:10J. Oracz4071111113P. Gesiarz26115641
WFeb 16 · 19:25J. Oracz3961111113P. Gesiarz28113771
J. Oracz10
WSep 19 · 21:00J. Oracz1.251111113K. Malcher3.758960LSep 19 · 19:40P. Gesiarz3.5051111113J. Oracz1.28119991LSep 19 · 18:55T. Kocik1.8311911113J. Oracz1.83911681WSep 19 · 18:10J. Oracz1.281411113G. Mucha3.5012680WSep 19 · 16:35J. Oracz1.30911116113K. Malcher3.4011591192WSep 19 · 15:50D. Maszczynski5.50811381J. Oracz1.1311811113WSep 19 · 02:20M. Natkaniec3.6591111111J. Oracz1.1711133133WSep 19 · 01:35O. Jedrzejowski2.35811761J. Oracz1.5011711113WSep 18 · 23:35M. Krutak2.50911761J. Oracz1.4611811113LSep 18 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.8571113123J. Oracz1.8511811101
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 19 · 21:20P. Gesiarz2.108360G. Mucha1.671111113WSep 19 · 19:40P. Gesiarz3.5051111113J. Oracz1.28119991WSep 19 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.40121198113D. Maszczynski2.75106111122LSep 19 · 17:20P. Gesiarz1.83511119112K. Malcher1.83119311133LSep 19 · 16:15T. Kocik1.221111113P. Gesiarz4.006790WSep 19 · 15:25P. Gesiarz2.004121211113G. Mucha1.73111410892LSep 15 · 22:20J. Michalik1.851111143P. Gesiarz1.8599120WSep 15 · 21:30M. Brunner2.106101141P. Gesiarz1.6011128113LSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.6511713882M. Karpiuk2.055111111113WSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.85971111113M. Baran1.8511114852
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