TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13158407
Played Sep 19Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511119119119––
Jacek Oracz
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:38 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Jacek Oracz below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jacek Oracz at 54.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 0–4 Jacek Oracz Piotr Gesiarz has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1406 vs Oracz 1553
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 40% vs Oracz 80%
Oracz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 50% vs Oracz 70%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +1 · Oracz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 3.50 / Oracz 1.28
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Oracz)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13158407
Gesiarz3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 49 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Oracz1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 308 of 429
Up 2–0, closes it98% 190 of 193
Up 1–0, closes it88% 249 of 283
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGesiarz0wins
AwayOracz4wins
Oracz leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz2Oracz2n = 4split evenly
S2Gesiarz1Oracz3n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
S3Gesiarz0Oracz4n = 4Oracz took 4 of 4
S4Gesiarz0Oracz3n = 3Oracz took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away375%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricGesiarzOraczG − OBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match27.539.2−11.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 315 vs 656 / 90947%72.2%148 / 315 vs 656 / 909Avg sets wonper match1.92.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczGesiarz 3.50/Oracz 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.9%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 29 · 22:10P. Gesiarz31612581J. Oracz43111011113
LAug 29 · 19:40P. Gesiarz2591150J. Oracz351113113
LMar 23 · 20:10P. Gesiarz26115641J. Oracz4071111113
LFeb 16 · 19:25P. Gesiarz28113771J. Oracz3961111113
P. Gesiarz10
WSep 19 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.40121198113D. Maszczynski2.75106111122LSep 19 · 17:20P. Gesiarz1.61511119112K. Malcher2.20119311133LSep 19 · 16:15T. Kocik1.221111113P. Gesiarz4.006790WSep 19 · 15:25P. Gesiarz2.004121211113G. Mucha1.73111410892LSep 15 · 22:20J. Michalik1.851111143P. Gesiarz1.8599120WSep 15 · 21:30M. Brunner2.106101141P. Gesiarz1.6011128113LSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.6511713882M. Karpiuk2.055111111113WSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.85971111113M. Baran1.8511114852WSep 15 · 18:20J. Skorupa1.868360P. Gesiarz1.831111113LSep 14 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.3531060A. Zmijewski1.501112113
J. Oracz10
LSep 19 · 18:55T. Kocik1.8311911113J. Oracz1.83911681WSep 19 · 18:10J. Oracz1.281411113G. Mucha3.5012680WSep 19 · 16:35J. Oracz1.30911116113K. Malcher3.4011591192WSep 19 · 15:50D. Maszczynski5.50811381J. Oracz1.1311811113WSep 19 · 02:20M. Natkaniec3.6591111111J. Oracz1.1711133133WSep 19 · 01:35O. Jedrzejowski2.35811761J. Oracz1.5011711113WSep 18 · 23:35M. Krutak2.50911761J. Oracz1.4611811113LSep 18 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.8571113123J. Oracz1.8511811101WSep 18 · 21:10D. Pyrek3.5051121162J. Oracz1.26117119113LSep 18 · 20:20M. Natkaniec3.651171211113J. Oracz1.17131110672
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