TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13158418
Played Sep 19Finished
Jacek Oracz
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412116118––––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:46 and never touched — 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Oracz above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 62 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jacek Oracz at 75.8%
62 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Oracz 13–2 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 2 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:46What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-2 in 15
Oracz
Correct
gap of 11 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1578 vs Mucha 1354
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 225 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 100% vs Mucha 40%
Oracz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 70% vs Mucha 40%
Oracz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +5 · Mucha +1
Oracz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.28 / Mucha 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Oracz)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13158418
Oracz1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 308 of 429
Up 2–0, closes it98% 190 of 193
Up 1–0, closes it88% 249 of 283
Mucha3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 46 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz8wins
AwayMucha2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%4 of 4
AwayMucha33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz4Mucha6n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S2Oracz10Mucha0n = 10Oracz took 10 of 10
S3Oracz7Mucha3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S4Oracz5Mucha1n = 6Oracz took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczMuchaO − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.931.3+7.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime655 / 907 vs 147 / 29472.2%50%655 / 907 vs 147 / 294Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.28/Mucha 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 02:35J. Oracz33612871G. Mucha43111011113
WAug 29 · 15:25J. Oracz45121111113G. Mucha35148941
WAug 22 · 22:50J. Oracz331111113G. Mucha218490
WAug 22 · 15:10J. Oracz331111113G. Mucha207670
LAug 16 · 23:20J. Oracz4641281392G. Mucha5411101111113
WAug 16 · 17:20J. Oracz411511153G. Mucha34138130
WJul 9 · 21:45J. Oracz331111113G. Mucha218760
WJul 9 · 17:45J. Oracz4071111113G. Mucha26115371
WJul 5 · 21:20J. Oracz4071111113G. Mucha25114461
WJul 5 · 16:25J. Oracz45411811113G. Mucha3411511612
J. Oracz10
LSep 19 · 18:55T. Kocik1.8311911113J. Oracz1.83911681WSep 19 · 16:35J. Oracz1.30911116113K. Malcher3.4011591192WSep 19 · 15:50D. Maszczynski5.50811381J. Oracz1.1311811113WSep 19 · 02:20M. Natkaniec3.6591111111J. Oracz1.1711133133WSep 19 · 01:35O. Jedrzejowski2.35811761J. Oracz1.5011711113WSep 18 · 23:35M. Krutak2.50911761J. Oracz1.4611811113LSep 18 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.8571113123J. Oracz1.8511811101WSep 18 · 21:10D. Pyrek3.5051121162J. Oracz1.26117119113LSep 18 · 20:20M. Natkaniec3.651171211113J. Oracz1.17131110672LSep 18 · 19:35O. Jedrzejowski2.351171110113J. Oracz1.5041151252
G. Mucha10
WSep 19 · 16:55D. Maszczynski3.757980G. Mucha1.251111113LSep 19 · 15:25P. Gesiarz2.004121211113G. Mucha1.73111410892LSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5713115113G. Mucha2.251171181LSep 18 · 01:25K. Gudzik1.831111113G. Mucha1.834980WSep 17 · 23:20M. Brunner3.25114461G. Mucha1.3371111113LSep 17 · 22:35M. Guzik1.2051111113G. Mucha4.33117661LSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491WSep 17 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.53123711122G. Mucha2.381011119143LSep 17 · 19:20K. Gudzik1.91131111113G. Mucha1.801151381WSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113
Upcoming Matches
J. Oracz
G. Mucha
Sep 19 · 20:30G. Mucha4.33T. Kocik1.20—Sep 19 · 21:20G. Mucha1.67P. Gesiarz2.10—Sep 19 · 22:55G. Mucha1.20D. Maszczynski4.33—Sep 20 · 24:10G. Mucha4.33T. Kocik1.20—Sep 20 · 01:25G. Mucha1.50K. Malcher2.50—Sep 20 · 02:35G. Mucha3.50J. Oracz1.28—Sep 20 · 15:25G. Mucha—K. Rybak——Sep 20 · 16:55G. Mucha—A. Zmijewski——Sep 20 · 18:10G. Mucha—Z. Nocun——Sep 20 · 19:20G. Mucha—J. Skorupa——
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