TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13153549
Played Sep 19Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
41112141210118119
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Gesiarz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 102 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Piotr Gesiarz at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 3–7 Grzegorz Mucha Piotr Gesiarz has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:34What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Mucha
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1367 vs Mucha 1382
Mucha
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 60% vs Mucha 20%
Gesiarz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 60% vs Mucha 40%
Gesiarz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz -1 · Mucha -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 2.00 / Mucha 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Mucha)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13153549
Gesiarz2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 15)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 49 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Mucha1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 90 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it100% 45 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it77% 60 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGesiarz3wins
AwayMucha7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMucha leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz50%3 of 6
AwayMucha100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz6Mucha4n = 10Gesiarz took 6 of 10
S2Gesiarz2Mucha8n = 10Mucha took 8 of 10
S3Gesiarz3Mucha7n = 10Mucha took 7 of 10
S4Gesiarz4Mucha3n = 7Gesiarz took 4 of 7
S5Gesiarz1Mucha3n = 4Mucha took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGesiarzMuchaG − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.042.2−2.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 311 vs 146 / 29247%50%146 / 311 vs 146 / 292Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaGesiarz 2.00/Mucha 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 23:45P. Gesiarz259880G. Mucha331111113
LSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz4312881142G. Mucha491011116113
LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz45114118112G. Mucha50911611133
LSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz2911990G. Mucha351311113
LAug 29 · 21:20P. Gesiarz246990G. Mucha331111113
WAug 29 · 18:10P. Gesiarz48111214113G. Mucha416101691
LAug 15 · 22:55P. Gesiarz4213127101G. Mucha48111411123
WAug 15 · 16:55P. Gesiarz511111711113G. Mucha4881311972
LAug 9 · 02:10P. Gesiarz481111115102G. Mucha49135811123
WAug 8 · 20:05P. Gesiarz4515811113G. Mucha361311391
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 19 · 16:15T. Kocik1.221111113P. Gesiarz4.006790LSep 15 · 22:20J. Michalik1.851111143P. Gesiarz1.8599120WSep 15 · 21:30M. Brunner2.106101141P. Gesiarz1.6011128113LSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.6511713882M. Karpiuk2.055111111113WSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.85971111113M. Baran1.8511114852WSep 15 · 18:20J. Skorupa1.868360P. Gesiarz1.831111113LSep 14 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.3531060A. Zmijewski1.501112113WSep 14 · 18:45J. Cyndera1.8069111142P. Gesiarz1.90111199113WSep 14 · 18:00M. Warzecha1.417311101P. Gesiarz2.5511115123WSep 14 · 17:10P. Gesiarz1.461111113A. Staniczek2.425350
G. Mucha10
WSep 19 · 16:55D. Maszczynski3.757980G. Mucha1.251111113LSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5713115113G. Mucha2.251171181LSep 18 · 01:25K. Gudzik1.831111113G. Mucha1.834980WSep 17 · 23:20M. Brunner3.25114461G. Mucha1.3371111113LSep 17 · 22:35M. Guzik1.2051111113G. Mucha4.33117661LSep 17 · 21:00M. Baran1.8311616113G. Mucha1.833111491WSep 17 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.53123711122G. Mucha2.381011119143LSep 17 · 19:20K. Gudzik1.91131111113G. Mucha1.801151381WSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113WSep 17 · 16:35M. Baran1.831471012132G. Mucha1.8312111210153
Upcoming Matches
P. Gesiarz
Sep 19 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.40D. Maszczynski2.75—Sep 19 · 19:40P. Gesiarz3.50J. Oracz1.28—Sep 19 · 21:20P. Gesiarz2.10G. Mucha1.67—Sep 19 · 22:10P. Gesiarz3.50J. Oracz1.28—Sep 19 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.80K. Malcher1.91—Sep 20 · 24:35P. Gesiarz1.40D. Maszczynski2.75—Sep 20 · 01:45P. Gesiarz4.00T. Kocik1.22—
G. Mucha
Sep 19 · 18:10G. Mucha3.50J. Oracz1.28—Sep 19 · 19:20G. Mucha1.50K. Malcher2.50—Sep 19 · 20:30G. Mucha4.33T. Kocik1.20—Sep 19 · 21:20G. Mucha1.67P. Gesiarz2.10—Sep 19 · 22:55G. Mucha1.25D. Maszczynski3.75—Sep 20 · 24:10G. Mucha4.00T. Kocik1.22—Sep 20 · 01:25G. Mucha1.50K. Malcher2.50—Sep 20 · 02:35G. Mucha3.50J. Oracz1.28—Sep 20 · 15:25G. Mucha—K. Rybak——Sep 20 · 16:55G. Mucha—A. Zmijewski——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.