TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13158434
Played Sep 19Finished
Tomasz Kocik
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117119––––
Piotr Gesiarz
Away
4.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:51 and never touched — 73.9% is still 73.9%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
73.9%
73.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomasz Kocik above · Piotr Gesiarz below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 73.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Kocik 7–3 Piotr Gesiarz Piotr Gesiarz has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:51What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Kocik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Kocik
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocik 1618 vs Gesiarz 1402
Kocik
Correct
both rated, 216 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocik 80% vs Gesiarz 60%
Kocik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocik 90% vs Gesiarz 70%
Kocik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocik +1 · Gesiarz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocik 1.22 / Gesiarz 4.00
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Kocik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13158434
Kocik1.22
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite77% won 52 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it86% 42 of 49
Gesiarz4.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 49 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocik7wins
AwayGesiarz3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKocik leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocik71.4%5 of 7
AwayGesiarz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocik7Gesiarz3n = 10Kocik took 7 of 10
S2Kocik5Gesiarz5n = 10split evenly
S3Kocik8Gesiarz2n = 10Kocik took 8 of 10
S4Kocik5Gesiarz3n = 8Kocik took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocikGesiarzK − GBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.534.6+5.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocikGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 99 vs 147 / 31273.7%47.1%73 / 99 vs 147 / 312Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikKocik 1.22/Gesiarz 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kocik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 21:45T. Kocik4616118113P. Gesiarz401491161
WSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik44111111113P. Gesiarz34713861
WSep 5 · 21:45T. Kocik331111113P. Gesiarz216690
LSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik37119981P. Gesiarz4181111113
WAug 1 · 21:20T. Kocik3961111113P. Gesiarz27115561
LAug 1 · 15:25T. Kocik511110111092P. Gesiarz51712912113
WJul 25 · 22:55T. Kocik331111113P. Gesiarz269980
WJul 25 · 16:55T. Kocik3961111113P. Gesiarz29116751
LJul 12 · 24:35T. Kocik37891191P. Gesiarz3711114113
WJul 11 · 18:28T. Kocik46111211123P. Gesiarz408148101
T. Kocik10
WSep 19 · 15:00T. Kocik1.2011511113K. Malcher4.33711351LSep 13 · 01:45K. Gudzik4.50111359133T. Kocik1.174111111112WSep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha4.00871161T. Kocik1.2211116113WSep 13 · 24:10T. Kocik1.0211117183D. Maszczynski11.009611161WSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.221111113J. Skorupa4.004680WSep 12 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.501491161T. Kocik1.2816118113WSep 12 · 20:30T. Kocik1.021112113D. Maszczynski10.5031070WSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.28111111113G. Mucha3.50851351WSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861WSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531
P. Gesiarz10
WSep 19 · 15:25P. Gesiarz2.004121211113G. Mucha1.73111410892LSep 15 · 22:20J. Michalik1.851111143P. Gesiarz1.8599120WSep 15 · 21:30M. Brunner2.106101141P. Gesiarz1.6011128113LSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.6511713882M. Karpiuk2.055111111113WSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.85971111113M. Baran1.8511114852WSep 15 · 18:20J. Skorupa1.868360P. Gesiarz1.831111113LSep 14 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.3531060A. Zmijewski1.501112113WSep 14 · 18:45J. Cyndera1.8069111142P. Gesiarz1.90111199113LSep 12 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.501491161T. Kocik1.2816118113LSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861
Upcoming Matches
T. Kocik
Sep 19 · 17:45T. Kocik1.03D. Maszczynski10.00—Sep 19 · 18:55T. Kocik1.83J. Oracz1.83—Sep 19 · 20:30T. Kocik1.20G. Mucha4.33—Sep 19 · 21:45T. Kocik1.03D. Maszczynski10.00—Sep 19 · 22:35T. Kocik1.16K. Malcher3.70—Sep 20 · 24:10T. Kocik1.22G. Mucha4.00—Sep 20 · 01:00T. Kocik1.83J. Oracz1.83—Sep 20 · 01:45T. Kocik1.22P. Gesiarz4.00—
P. Gesiarz
Sep 19 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.40D. Maszczynski2.75—Sep 19 · 19:40P. Gesiarz3.50J. Oracz1.28—Sep 19 · 21:20P. Gesiarz2.10G. Mucha1.67—Sep 19 · 22:10P. Gesiarz3.50J. Oracz1.28—Sep 19 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.80K. Malcher1.91—Sep 20 · 24:35P. Gesiarz1.40D. Maszczynski2.75—Sep 20 · 01:45P. Gesiarz4.00T. Kocik1.22—
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