TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159123
Played Sep 19Finished
Jacek Oracz
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119116––––
Krzysztof Malcher
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched — 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Oracz above · Krzysztof Malcher below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Jacek Oracz at 73.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Oracz 5–1 Krzysztof Malcher Krzysztof Malcher has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Oracz beat Malcher 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Oracz
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1546 vs Malcher 1287
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 259 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Malcher 40%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 70% vs Malcher 30%
Oracz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -2 · Malcher +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malcher form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.25 / Malcher 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Oracz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13159123
Oracz1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 308 of 429
Up 2–0, closes it98% 190 of 193
Up 1–0, closes it88% 249 of 283
Malcher3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 28 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeOracz5wins
AwayMalcher1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderOracz leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz80%4 of 5
AwayMalchern = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz5Malcher1n = 6Oracz took 5 of 6
S2Oracz4Malcher2n = 6Oracz took 4 of 6
S3Oracz6Malcher0n = 6Oracz took 6 of 6
S4Oracz1Malcher2n = 3Malcher took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricOraczMalcherO − MBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match38.033.5+4.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczMalcherBasisWin rate · lifetime657 / 911 vs 37 / 10172.1%36.6%657 / 911 vs 37 / 101Avg sets wonper match2.51.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.433.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.25/Malcher 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 19 · 21:00J. Oracz331111113K. Malcher238960
WSep 19 · 16:35J. Oracz48911116113K. Malcher4511591192
LAug 29 · 21:00J. Oracz45115111082K. Malcher51811912113
WAug 29 · 17:20J. Oracz331111113K. Malcher183780
WJul 11 · 24:25J. Oracz3511111123K. Malcher399119101
WJul 10 · 20:45J. Oracz341111123K. Malcher2578100
J. Oracz10
LSep 19 · 19:40P. Gesiarz3.5051111113J. Oracz1.28119991LSep 19 · 18:55T. Kocik1.8311911113J. Oracz1.83911681WSep 19 · 18:10J. Oracz1.281411113G. Mucha3.5012680WSep 19 · 16:35J. Oracz1.30911116113K. Malcher3.4011591192WSep 19 · 15:50D. Maszczynski5.50811381J. Oracz1.1311811113WSep 19 · 02:20M. Natkaniec3.6591111111J. Oracz1.1711133133WSep 19 · 01:35O. Jedrzejowski2.35811761J. Oracz1.5011711113WSep 18 · 23:35M. Krutak2.50911761J. Oracz1.4611811113LSep 18 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.8571113123J. Oracz1.8511811101WSep 18 · 21:10D. Pyrek3.5051121162J. Oracz1.26117119113
K. Malcher10
WSep 19 · 20:05D. Maszczynski2.6311950K. Malcher1.441311113LSep 19 · 19:20G. Mucha1.505111210133K. Malcher2.501181012112WSep 19 · 17:20P. Gesiarz1.61511119112K. Malcher2.20119311133LSep 19 · 16:35J. Oracz1.30911116113K. Malcher3.4011591192LSep 19 · 15:00T. Kocik1.2011511113K. Malcher4.33711351LSep 13 · 02:00K. Malcher3.407470C. Pawlik1.241111113LSep 13 · 24:45K. Malcher2.907930A. Zmijewski1.321111113LSep 12 · 23:35K. Malcher2.753260O. Jedrzejowski1.361111113WSep 12 · 22:25M. Wolny1.75611871K. Malcher1.9511911113LSep 12 · 21:35K. Malcher2.753114141A. Fomin1.4011911163
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