TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marian Brunner vs Mateusz Baran 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Marian Brunner
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119116611611116
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:39 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
119116611611116
H2H Marian Brunner 3–3 Mateusz Baran Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1242 vs Baran 1336
Baran
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 20% vs Baran 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 10% vs Baran 30%
Baran
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner -3 · Baran -1
Brunner
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (20%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 1.90 / Baran 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baran)+1.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13171850
Brunner1.90
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 48 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Baran1.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 46 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it73% 27 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBrunner3wins
AwayBaran3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrunner40%2 of 5
AwayBarann = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brunner5Baran1n = 6Brunner took 5 of 6
S2Brunner2Baran4n = 6Baran took 4 of 6
S3Brunner3Baran3n = 6split evenly
S4Brunner3Baran2n = 5Brunner took 3 of 5
S5Brunner1Baran2n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricBrunnerBaranBrunner − BaranBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match43.741.7+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 581 vs 84 / 16149.1%52.2%285 / 581 vs 84 / 161Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranBrunner 1.90/Baran 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Brunner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 17 · 22:10M. Brunner46101111143M. Baran371249121
LSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner4511891162M. Baran48811117113
LSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner28115661M. Baran4181111113
WSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner341112113M. Baran2791080
WAug 26 · 24:20M. Brunner571115119113M. Baran4871761172
LAug 25 · 20:20M. Brunner521310121162M. Baran491112141113
M. Brunner10
LSep 22 · 18:45M. Brunner2.65710121192K. Kwiatkowski1.321112101113LSep 18 · 01:45M. Brunner7.004760M. Guzik1.081111113LSep 18 · 24:35M. Brunner2.7596131152Z. Nocun1.401111116113LSep 17 · 23:20M. Brunner3.25114461G. Mucha1.3371111113WSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143LSep 17 · 21:20M. Brunner2.38101111482K. Gudzik1.53128911113LSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 18:30M. Brunner2.637740Z. Nocun1.441111113LSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113LSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240
M. Baran10
WSep 22 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.821561131M. Baran1.7217117113LSep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.83115591M. Karpiuk1.8371111113WSep 22 · 24:30M. Baran2.0011711113M. Lewczuk1.73911981LSep 21 · 23:30M. Baran2.7513770A. Zmijewski1.401511113LSep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38910100K. Kwiatkowski1.531112123LSep 21 · 21:00M. Baran2.38511681J. Zelezik1.5311811113WSep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.5091181272M. Baran2.501161110113LSep 21 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.7312311113M. Baran2.001011651LSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143WSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113
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