TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marian Brunner vs Kacper Kwiatkowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Marian Brunner
Home
2.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71110121210111911
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.32
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
71110121210111911
H2H Marian Brunner 2–6 Kacper Kwiatkowski Marian Brunner has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.32 (67%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Kwiatkowski
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1257 vs Kwiatkowski 1432
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 40% vs Kwiatkowski 60%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 20% vs Kwiatkowski 50%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner +1 · Kwiatkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (60%) is below what odds imply (76%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 2.65 / Kwiatkowski 1.32
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13170792
Brunner2.65
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 48 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Kwiatkowski1.32
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 40 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it76% 32 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBrunner2wins
AwayKwiatkowski6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrunnern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKwiatkowski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brunner2Kwiatkowski6n = 8Kwiatkowski took 6 of 8
S2Brunner4Kwiatkowski4n = 8split evenly
S3Brunner2Kwiatkowski6n = 8Kwiatkowski took 6 of 8
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away450%
These 8 meetings
MetricBrunnerKwiatkowskiB − KBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match30.533.8−3.3per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 582 vs 119 / 27349.1%43.6%286 / 582 vs 119 / 273Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiBrunner 2.65/Kwiatkowski 1.32
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2410590K. Kwiatkowski341211113
LAug 25 · 17:30M. Brunner33911671K. Kwiatkowski3811511113
LAug 12 · 24:20M. Brunner269890K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WAug 11 · 20:20M. Brunner331111113K. Kwiatkowski175840
LJul 30 · 22:35M. Brunner39311411102K. Kwiatkowski52119119123
LJul 30 · 15:00M. Brunner258980K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WJul 15 · 04:20M. Brunner381111163K. Kwiatkowski3097140
LJul 14 · 18:45M. Brunner268990K. Kwiatkowski331111113
M. Brunner10
WSep 22 · 17:30M. Brunner1.90111166113M. Baran1.7596111162LSep 18 · 01:45M. Brunner7.004760M. Guzik1.081111113LSep 18 · 24:35M. Brunner2.7596131152Z. Nocun1.401111116113LSep 17 · 23:20M. Brunner3.25114461G. Mucha1.3371111113WSep 17 · 22:10M. Baran1.531249121M. Brunner2.38101111143LSep 17 · 21:20M. Brunner2.38101111482K. Gudzik1.53128911113LSep 17 · 19:40M. Brunner2.2511891162M. Baran1.57811117113LSep 17 · 18:30M. Brunner2.637740Z. Nocun1.441111113LSep 17 · 17:20M. Brunner2.2551070G. Mucha1.571112113LSep 17 · 16:15M. Guzik1.171111113M. Brunner4.505240
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski1.43951151M. Karpiuk2.4311118113WSep 22 · 01:10K. Kwiatkowski1.671112113M. Lewczuk2.1051040WSep 22 · 24:10K. Kwiatkowski2.381161112133A. Zmijewski1.53811714112LSep 21 · 23:10K. Kwiatkowski2.38781191J. Zelezik1.5311116113WSep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38910100K. Kwiatkowski1.531112123LSep 21 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski1.61671181M. Karpiuk2.2011119113LSep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.5091181272M. Baran2.501161110113WSep 21 · 18:30K. Kwiatkowski2.2091111113A. Zmijewski1.61116561WSep 21 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski2.50111164123J. Zelezik1.50941111102LSep 21 · 16:15M. Lewczuk2.10111164123K. Kwiatkowski1.67661111102
Upcoming Matches
M. Brunner
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 22 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski1.31M. Baran2.70—Sep 22 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski1.50K. Delikatny2.40—Sep 22 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski—P. Gesiarz——Sep 22 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 23 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——Sep 23 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Baran——Sep 23 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski—K. Delikatny——Sep 23 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski—M. Brunner——Sep 23 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Slawomir——Sep 23 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski—W. Stechly——
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