TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Miroslaw Lewczuk 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151210114––––
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:45 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 53 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 54.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 5–6 Miroslaw Lewczuk Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Lewczuk beat Kwiatkowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1456 vs Lewczuk 1346
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Lewczuk 20%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 60% vs Lewczuk 30%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski +1 · Lewczuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.67 / Lewczuk 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13169058
Kwiatkowski1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 37 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it74% 29 of 39
Lewczuk2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 63 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski5wins
AwayLewczuk5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski66.7%4 of 6
AwayLewczuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski6Lewczuk4n = 10Kwiatkowski took 6 of 10
S2Kwiatkowski3Lewczuk7n = 10Lewczuk took 7 of 10
S3Kwiatkowski8Lewczuk2n = 10Kwiatkowski took 8 of 10
S4Kwiatkowski6Lewczuk3n = 9Kwiatkowski took 6 of 9
S5Kwiatkowski1Lewczuk4n = 5Lewczuk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiLewczukK − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.737.8−0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 271 vs 483 / 94643.5%51.1%118 / 271 vs 483 / 946Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.67/Lewczuk 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 16:15K. Kwiatkowski44661111102M. Lewczuk44111164123
LSep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski42351111122M. Lewczuk53111198143
LSep 16 · 17:45K. Kwiatkowski3411811312M. Lewczuk47911511113
WAug 24 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski3851111113M. Lewczuk22115421
WAug 24 · 17:45K. Kwiatkowski48117118113M. Lewczuk4481181162
WAug 19 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski331111113M. Lewczuk81520
LAug 19 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski21113431M. Lewczuk4181111113
WAug 17 · 22:10K. Kwiatkowski44111011123M. Lewczuk336125101
WAug 17 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski3811114123M. Lewczuk345811101
LAug 11 · 01:10K. Kwiatkowski3581131122M. Lewczuk521111118113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WSep 22 · 24:10K. Kwiatkowski2.381161112133A. Zmijewski1.53811714112LSep 21 · 23:10K. Kwiatkowski2.38781191J. Zelezik1.5311116113WSep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38910100K. Kwiatkowski1.531112123LSep 21 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski1.61671181M. Karpiuk2.2011119113LSep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.5091181272M. Baran2.501161110113WSep 21 · 18:30K. Kwiatkowski2.2091111113A. Zmijewski1.61116561WSep 21 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski2.50111164123J. Zelezik1.50941111102LSep 21 · 16:15M. Lewczuk2.10111164123K. Kwiatkowski1.67661111102WSep 21 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski1.57111116113M. Karpiuk2.25791881WSep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.611311113J. Michalik2.2011370
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 22 · 24:30M. Baran2.0011711113M. Lewczuk1.73911981WSep 21 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.4431112113M. Karpiuk2.631161041LSep 21 · 22:30M. Lewczuk2.10111011582J. Zelezik1.67612711113LSep 21 · 21:45A. Zmijewski1.611111113M. Lewczuk2.209780LSep 21 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.40119111092M. Karpiuk2.75511812113WSep 21 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.7312311113M. Baran2.001011651LSep 21 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10111661A. Zmijewski1.6711911113WSep 21 · 16:15M. Lewczuk2.10111164123K. Kwiatkowski1.67661111102LSep 21 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1013117572J. Zelezik1.671151111113LSep 17 · 01:45J. Skorupa2.201112104123M. Lewczuk1.618101211102
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 22 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Baran——Sep 22 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski—K. Delikatny——Sep 22 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski—P. Gesiarz——Sep 22 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 23 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——Sep 23 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Baran——Sep 23 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski—K. Delikatny——Sep 23 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski—M. Brunner——
M. Lewczuk
Nothing scheduled
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