TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Baran vs Miroslaw Lewczuk 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119711119118––
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 4–3 Miroslaw Lewczuk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Lewczuk beat Baran 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:25What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lewczuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1350 vs Lewczuk 1358
Lewczuk
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 20% vs Lewczuk 40%
Lewczuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 20% vs Lewczuk 40%
Lewczuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -3 · Lewczuk +1
Baran
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lewczuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 2.00 / Lewczuk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lewczuk)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13169260
Baran2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back30% 12 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Lewczuk1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 167 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it96% 109 of 114
Up 1–0, closes it83% 128 of 155
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBaran4wins
AwayLewczuk3wins
4 of 7 to a deciderBaran leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLewczuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran2Lewczuk5n = 7Lewczuk took 5 of 7
S2Baran3Lewczuk4n = 7Lewczuk took 4 of 7
S3Baran4Lewczuk3n = 7Baran took 4 of 7
S4Baran3Lewczuk3n = 6split evenly
S5Baran3Lewczuk1n = 4Baran took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricBaranLewczukB − LBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match39.941.9−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime83 / 159 vs 483 / 94552.2%51.1%83 / 159 vs 483 / 945Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukBaran 2.00/Lewczuk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 21 · 18:55M. Baran321011651M. Lewczuk3712311113
WSep 17 · 24:10M. Baran42122116113M. Lewczuk49101191182
WSep 16 · 20:30M. Baran47511128113M. Lewczuk47118101172
LSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran155640M. Lewczuk331111113
LSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran5189111492M. Lewczuk501111512113
WSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran4311811133M. Lewczuk321119111
WSep 9 · 17:45M. Baran49911711113M. Lewczuk4511811962
M. Baran10
LSep 21 · 23:30M. Baran2.7513770A. Zmijewski1.401511113LSep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38910100K. Kwiatkowski1.531112123LSep 21 · 21:00M. Baran2.38511681J. Zelezik1.5311811113WSep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.5091181272M. Baran2.501161110113LSep 21 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.7312311113M. Baran2.001011651LSep 21 · 18:10M. Baran1.677680M. Karpiuk2.101111113WSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690LSep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.531111113M. Baran2.388730LSep 18 · 02:35M. Baran1.91961281K. Gudzik1.80111110113LSep 18 · 01:00M. Baran3.751010111252M. Guzik1.251212710113
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 22 · 01:10K. Kwiatkowski1.671112113M. Lewczuk2.1051040WSep 21 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.4431112113M. Karpiuk2.631161041LSep 21 · 22:30M. Lewczuk2.10111011582J. Zelezik1.67612711113LSep 21 · 21:45A. Zmijewski1.611111113M. Lewczuk2.209780LSep 21 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.40119111092M. Karpiuk2.75511812113WSep 21 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.7312311113M. Baran2.001011651LSep 21 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10111661A. Zmijewski1.6711911113WSep 21 · 16:15M. Lewczuk2.10111164123K. Kwiatkowski1.67661111102LSep 21 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1013117572J. Zelezik1.671151111113LSep 17 · 01:45J. Skorupa2.201112104123M. Lewczuk1.618101211102
Upcoming Matches
M. Baran
Sep 22 · 01:50M. Baran1.83M. Karpiuk1.83—Sep 22 · 17:30M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 19:10M. Baran—P. Gesiarz——Sep 22 · 19:55M. Baran—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 22 · 21:55M. Baran—M. Karpiuk——Sep 22 · 22:40M. Baran—K. Delikatny——Sep 22 · 23:30M. Baran—J. Michalik——Sep 23 · 01:10M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 23 · 01:55M. Baran—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 23 · 03:55M. Baran—M. Karpiuk——
M. Lewczuk
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