TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Baran vs Artur Zmijewski 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1315711711––––
Artur Zmijewski
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Artur Zmijewski below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 64 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 56.7%
64 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 1–2 Artur Zmijewski Mateusz Baran has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Zmijewski beat Baran 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1360 vs Zmijewski 1455
Zmijewski
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 20% vs Zmijewski 40%
Zmijewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 30% vs Zmijewski 50%
Zmijewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -2 · Zmijewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmijewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 2.75 / Zmijewski 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Zmijewski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13165477
Baran2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back30% 12 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Zmijewski1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 65 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it89% 49 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBaran1wins
AwayZmijewski2wins
Zmijewski leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran1Zmijewski2n = 3Zmijewski took 2 of 3
S2Baran1Zmijewski2n = 3Zmijewski took 2 of 3
S3Baran2Zmijewski1n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricBaranZmijewskiB − ZBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match30.035.0−5.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime83 / 158 vs 93 / 15752.5%59.2%83 / 158 vs 93 / 157Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiBaran 2.75/Zmijewski 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 21 · 15:50M. Baran188730A. Zmijewski331111113
WSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran371312123A. Zmijewski311110100
LSep 9 · 20:05M. Baran355711121A. Zmijewski4111115143
M. Baran10
WSep 22 · 24:30M. Baran2.0011711113M. Lewczuk1.73911981LSep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38910100K. Kwiatkowski1.531112123LSep 21 · 21:00M. Baran2.38511681J. Zelezik1.5311811113WSep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.5091181272M. Baran2.501161110113LSep 21 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.7312311113M. Baran2.001011651LSep 21 · 18:10M. Baran1.677680M. Karpiuk2.101111113WSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690LSep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.531111113M. Baran2.388730LSep 18 · 02:35M. Baran1.91961281K. Gudzik1.80111110113LSep 18 · 01:00M. Baran3.751010111252M. Guzik1.251212710113
A. Zmijewski10
LSep 22 · 24:10K. Kwiatkowski2.381161112133A. Zmijewski1.53811714112LSep 21 · 22:50A. Zmijewski1.2548111182M. Karpiuk3.75111186113WSep 21 · 21:45A. Zmijewski1.611111113M. Lewczuk2.209780LSep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.917930J. Zelezik1.801111113LSep 21 · 18:30K. Kwiatkowski2.2091111113A. Zmijewski1.61116561WSep 21 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10111661A. Zmijewski1.6711911113WSep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.22101114113M. Karpiuk4.001241251WSep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.531111113M. Baran2.388730LSep 21 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.405128111J. Skorupa2.75111011133WSep 21 · 24:35K. Rybak9.007190A. Zmijewski1.041111113
Upcoming Matches
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A. Zmijewski
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