TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Zmijewski vs Mateusz Karpiuk 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Artur Zmijewski
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411811118116811
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 68.6% is still 68.6%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
68.6%
68.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Zmijewski above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 68.6%
89 points played in total.
H2H Artur Zmijewski 7–0 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Zmijewski beat Karpiuk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Zmijewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-0 in 7
Zmijewski
Wrong
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1471 vs Karpiuk 1340
Zmijewski
Wrong
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 60% vs Karpiuk 80%
Karpiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 60% vs Karpiuk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski +1 · Karpiuk +4
Karpiuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 1.25 / Karpiuk 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Zmijewski)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13165478
Zmijewski1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 65 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it89% 49 of 55
Karpiuk3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 58 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZmijewski7wins
AwayKarpiuk0wins
2 of 7 to a deciderZmijewski leads 7–0, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmijewski100%5 of 5
AwayKarpiukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski5Karpiuk2n = 7Zmijewski took 5 of 7
S2Zmijewski6Karpiuk1n = 7Zmijewski took 6 of 7
S3Zmijewski5Karpiuk2n = 7Zmijewski took 5 of 7
S4Zmijewski3Karpiuk2n = 5Zmijewski took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricZmijewskiKarpiukZ − KBasisWins70+7in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match42.432.9+9.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 156 vs 133 / 30059.6%44.3%93 / 156 vs 133 / 300Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiZmijewski 1.25/Karpiuk 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski46101114113M. Karpiuk331241251
WAug 30 · 22:55A. Zmijewski4111118113M. Karpiuk30821191
WAug 30 · 16:55A. Zmijewski531111119113M. Karpiuk4713861192
WAug 23 · 21:00A. Zmijewski501111611113M. Karpiuk4176111342
WAug 23 · 16:35A. Zmijewski331111113M. Karpiuk165740
WAug 21 · 01:10A. Zmijewski331111113M. Karpiuk258890
WAug 20 · 17:30A. Zmijewski4111811113M. Karpiuk38911991
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 21 · 23:30M. Baran2.7513770A. Zmijewski1.401511113WSep 21 · 21:45A. Zmijewski1.611111113M. Lewczuk2.209780LSep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.917930J. Zelezik1.801111113WSep 21 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10111661A. Zmijewski1.6711911113WSep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.22101114113M. Karpiuk4.001241251WSep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.531111113M. Baran2.388730LSep 21 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.405128111J. Skorupa2.75111011133WSep 21 · 24:35K. Rybak9.007190A. Zmijewski1.041111113LSep 20 · 23:45Z. Nocun2.25127115113A. Zmijewski1.57101181172WSep 20 · 22:55A. Zmijewski1.3611136173G. Mucha3.0071111151
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 21 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.4431112113M. Karpiuk2.631161041WSep 21 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski1.61671181M. Karpiuk2.2011119113WSep 21 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.40119111092M. Karpiuk2.75511812113WSep 21 · 19:20M. Karpiuk3.2561111113J. Zelezik1.33117861WSep 21 · 18:10M. Baran1.677680M. Karpiuk2.101111113LSep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.22101114113M. Karpiuk4.001241251LSep 21 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski1.57111116113M. Karpiuk2.25791881WSep 16 · 05:05K. Rybak2.27119961M. Karpiuk1.5791111113WSep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.851111113M. Baran1.858960LSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561
Upcoming Matches
A. Zmijewski
M. Karpiuk
Sep 22 · 24:50M. Karpiuk3.00J. Zelezik1.36—Sep 22 · 01:50M. Karpiuk1.83M. Baran1.83—Sep 22 · 17:55M. Karpiuk—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 22 · 19:30M. Karpiuk—K. Delikatny——Sep 22 · 20:45M. Karpiuk—P. Gesiarz——Sep 22 · 21:55M. Karpiuk—M. Baran——Sep 22 · 23:05M. Karpiuk—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 23:55M. Karpiuk—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 23 · 01:30M. Karpiuk—K. Delikatny——Sep 23 · 02:45M. Karpiuk—M. Brunner——
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